Bitcoin may need to ascend to $140,000 before long-term holders feel the same euphoria seen in prior bull market peaks. That’s the conclusion of new on-chain research from CryptoQuant, which says profit-taking levels today are still lagging far behind those recorded in 2024 — despite BTC trading near its highs.
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The $140K mark is being framed as a magnetic zone — a level where unrealized profits could once again resemble the 300–350% gains seen during March and December of last year. It’s not just a target. It’s the psychological altitude where serious sell pressure could return.
Old Hands Still Hold Most of the Firepower
According to the report, long-term holders — wallets that haven’t sold in six months or more — remain the dominant source of recent selling. But even these seasoned investors are sitting on smaller gains compared to prior cycles. Using the MVRV ratio, CryptoQuant estimates average profits at around 220%, well below the last bull market’s 300%+ peaks.
The takeaway is that there’s fuel left in the tank. And the market may need another leg up before those gains tempt larger exits.
Market Magnet Theory Gains Ground
Analyst “Darkfost” of CryptoQuant framed the $140K figure as a gravitational pull in this market cycle. “Although these profits may seem substantial, we’re still far from the levels observed during the tops of this cycle,” he wrote. That means we haven’t seen a true profit-taking climax — the kind that typically precedes a top.
The realized price for long-term holders is currently around $33,800, meaning the average holder is still in profit, but not enough to trigger a widespread exit, based on historical behavior.
Technical Signals Begin to Shift
Trader Rekt Capital echoed a cautiously bullish tone, pointing to a potential breakout from the multi-week downtrend Bitcoin has been stuck in since mid-May. While price action remains choppy, traders are watching for confirmation of a new upward phase. Rekt’s says that a retest-and-continuation pattern may be underway, with the bull market potentially entering its final months.
Macro Mood Adds Tailwinds
Broader conditions also favor the balloon analogy. With inflation trending lower and risk appetite returning, assets like Bitcoin are regaining their appeal as forward-looking plays. If the price floats high enough to $140K, it may not just unlock long-term holder gains, it could unleash a new phase of capital rotation into crypto at large.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $108,116.76.
