Bitcoin sellers are gaining significant momentum as several extremely bearish signals have emerged, raising the odds of a deep market correction. Analysts now forecast downside targets extending into the mid-$60,000s and even the sub-$50,000 area.
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This strong bearish outlook is driven by the first monthly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) rollover of this cycle. This crucial technical flip, combined with validating signals from on-chain metrics, strongly suggests the recent Bitcoin price decline is far from over.
MACD Flip Triggers Historical 50% Drawdown
In October, Bitcoin’s monthly MACD crossed into negative territory, a signal that has historically preceded severe bear market conditions. Since 2014, the monthly MACD has flipped red on five separate occasions.
In four of those five cases, the Bitcoin price went on to record massive drawdowns of approximately 50% before finally finding a market floor. Since the latest October crossover, Bitcoin has already declined by about 35%, suggesting room for an additional 25% dip by January 2026. This technical indicator places BTC’s next key downside target near the $62,200 level.
Veteran Traders Project Sub-$70K Targets
The technical warnings are echoed by veteran market analysts. Trader Peter Brandt indicated that Bitcoin is highly likely to drift toward the upper boundary of its rising support channel in the sub-$70,000 area.
Brandt projects even deeper downside targets if selling pressure accelerates, extending all the way into the mid-$40,000s, which represents a drop of 50% from recent high levels. This downside target aligns closely with the crucial 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) support target of previous bear markets, which sits at around $66,300.
On-Chain MVRV Bands Favor The Bitcoin Bears
On-chain valuation metrics are mirroring the bearish technical setup, further validating the downside risks. The Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) bands indicate that BTC is still trading well above a key historical support level.
During the massive bear market corrections of 2018, 2019, and 2022, Bitcoin repeatedly retraced to the −0.5σ region of the MVRV bands before establishing a sustainable bottom. A similar move today would imply a downside target near $76,250, adding another layer of confirmation to the downside forecasts shared by technical analysts.
Key Takeaway
The convergence of historical technical signals, led by the monthly MACD flip, and validation from on-chain valuation metrics suggests that Bitcoin has significant room to fall. Investors must now prepare for a potential revisit of the sub-$70,000 area, with the risk of a historical 50% crash remaining fully intact.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $85,764.97.
