Bitcoin’s price action is no stranger to stimulus-driven rallies. And now, with U.S. President Donald Trump preparing to sign what he calls the “Big Beautiful Bill” — a massive spending package expected to catapult the national debt to $40 trillion — Bitcoin bulls are eyeing a repeat of the 2020 stimulus rally. Back then, when similar legislation hit the books, BTC surged nearly 40% in a matter of weeks.
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Stimulus Drives Bitcoin Just Like It Did in 2020
When Trump signed a multi-trillion-dollar COVID-19 relief bill in late 2020, Bitcoin gained 38% in just a few weeks. Traders are now pointing to that playbook again. This time, the catalyst is even more aggressive: a sweeping bill that would push U.S. borrowing to levels never seen before. As The Kobeissi Letter noted, the U.S. has added nearly $17 trillion in debt since 2020, a pace unmatched in modern history.
Debt fears may spook traditional markets, but Bitcoin tends to thrive in excess liquidity environments. The logic is simple: the more money the government prints or borrows, the more appealing a deflationary asset like Bitcoin becomes.
Liquidity Wave Aligns with Historical BTC Momentum
What adds fuel to this forecast is global liquidity data. The M2 money supply, a key indicator of cash sloshing through the system, just hit a new all-time high of $55.4 trillion. Historically, Bitcoin has followed M2 like a shadow, often rallying in tandem with rising global liquidity.
This trend aligns with recent bullish sentiment. Traders like Rekt Capital suggest we’re entering a final leg of the Bitcoin bull cycle. If liquidity remains strong and government spending ramps up, the next breakout may not be far off.
What Happens If Dormant Bitcoin Reawakens?
There’s an unpredictable variable in the mix. If a major rally materializes, it could coincide with old Bitcoin wallets — including those attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto — coming under increased scrutiny. Some believe that advances in quantum computing or economic pressure could trigger movement from long-dormant addresses. While that remains speculative, a rally to $150K would stir every corner of the crypto world.
What to Watch Next
Bitcoin currently trades around $109,000. A 38% gain would push it to $150,000 — a level that may unlock the next wave of retail FOMO and institutional inflows. That said, timing is everything. The “Big Beautiful Bill” isn’t yet signed into law, and global markets remain sensitive to rate moves, regulatory shifts, and liquidity flows.
Analysts believe this could happen again. If the stimulus is passed and liquidity floods into the system, Bitcoin may respond with another parabolic move, possibly reaching as high as $150,000 in the short term.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $108,979.45.
