Big banks are starting to change how Bitcoin moves, and it’s making the old rules of the market less reliable. As 2025 comes to an end with Bitcoin near $88,000, major groups like Standard Chartered (SCBFF) & Bernstein (AB) have lowered their sights, now predicting a $150,000 price for 2026.
Claim 70% Off TipRanks This Holiday Season
- Unlock hedge fund-level data and powerful investing tools for smarter, sharper decisions
- Stay ahead of the market with the latest news and analysis and maximize your portfolio's potential
This shift reflects a change in how Bitcoin is being bought. Analyst Geoff Kendrick notes that aggressive buying by “digital asset treasuries” (DATs) has largely run its course, leaving spot ETFs as the primary pillar of support. While some analysts believe institutional buying will create a more durable growth trajectory, the mechanical nature of these inflows means Bitcoin is now more sensitive to broader macroeconomic fluctuations.
Technical Alarms Signal a $60K Reality Check
While institutions forecast growth, the charts suggest a significant reset may be coming. Bitcoin’s weekly SuperTrend indicator has flipped bearish, which is a signal that marked the end of bull markets in 2018 and 2022.
Analysts like Benjamin Cowen suggest the market could be mirroring the 2019 cycle. In this scenario, Bitcoin may see a relief rally back toward its 200-day moving average near $108,000 before resuming a downtrend. If historical patterns hold, the price could eventually bottom out near the 200-week moving average, which currently sits between $60,000 and $70,000.
The ETF Variable Is a Double-Edged Sword
The institutionalization of Bitcoin has introduced a new level of volatility tied to fund flows. In late 2025, the market watched as Bitcoin fell nearly 30% from its October peak of $126,000. During this period, BlackRock’s IBIT fund (IBIT) experienced its largest monthly redemption, highlighting how quickly institutional sentiment can shift.
For 2026, the key variable is whether these sticky institutional holders will buy the dip or join the sell-off. Polymarket bettors are currently split, with a 25% chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of 2026, while 61% believe it is likely to trade below the psychologically significant $100,000 mark.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $88,859.
