With AI continuing to reshape the defense and security landscape, BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) stock has been on a tear in 2025, soaring 74%. A steady stream of new customers, major contracts, and surging interest in AI-powered solutions have all combined to fuel the rally. Moreover, with a $384.9 million backlog as of Q1 and mounting traction in areas such as border security, defense, intelligence, and critical infrastructure, BBAI is well positioned for continued growth.
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That momentum has been further reinforced by a series of recent milestones. In just the past few weeks, BigBear.ai announced several high-profile initiatives, including the deployment of its biometric software for Enhanced Passenger Processing (EPP) at major international airports and ports of entry, a strategic partnership in the UAE, and a collaboration with Analogic, a leader in imaging, detection, and automation solutions for the security sector. Alongside these operational wins, improvements to the company’s balance sheet have strengthened its financial footing, potentially paving the way for accretive acquisitions that could accelerate revenue growth and shorten the path to sustained profitability.
Taken together, these factors significantly bolster the bull case for BigBear.ai, says H.C. Wainwright analyst Scott Buck.
“This positive momentum gives us greater confidence in our 2025 and 2026 revenue expectations and warrants an expansion in our valuation multiple to 12.0x from 10.0x,” Buck opined. “Notably, this is still well below AI peer Palantir Technologies, Inc. which currently trades at more than 66.0x 2026 Street revenue estimates, suggesting considerable room for further multiple expansion.”
Building on these encouraging trends, Buck believes the expected acceleration in revenue heading into 2026 is likely to push shares higher. The analyst anticipates revenue growth will pick up in 2H25, rising to 7.3% compared to 3.9% in the first half, and then increasing to double-digit growth in 2026, with his forecast calling for 2026 revenue growth of 13.6%. This acceleration should help investors to “extrapolate a path towards more consistent profitability” – potentially as early as 2026, according to Buck. This is reflected in his model, which projects a positive adjusted EBITDA of $4.5 million next year.
With this robust backdrop, Buck has now raised his price target from $6 to a new Street-high of $9, suggesting the stock will gain 16% in the months ahead. Buck’s rating remains a Buy. (To watch Buck’s track record, click here)
Buck is by some measure the Street’s most prominent BBAI bull; one other analyst joins him in the bull camp and with 2 additional Holds, the stock claims a Moderate Buy consensus rating. However, going by the $5.83 average price target, a year from now, shares will be going for a ~25% discount. (See BBAI stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.