Shares of BigBear.ai (BBAI) are up about 24% in 2025 as investors show growing interest in its AI-powered data analytics platform. However, TipRanks’ A.I. analysis is urging caution heading into 2026, pointing to concerns over declining revenue and ongoing profitability challenges.
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For context, TipRanks’ A.I. Stock Analysis delivers automated, data-driven evaluations of stocks, giving investors a clear and concise snapshot of a stock’s potential. Moreover, TipRanks’ A.I.-driven rating combines insights from multiple models, including OpenAI’s GPT-4o and Perplexity’s SonarPro.
BBAI Earns Neutral Rating
BigBear.ai is an AI-driven analytics company that provides data insights and decision-support solutions, primarily for government and defense clients.
According to TipRanks A.I., BBAI stock scores 49 out of 100 with a Neutral rating based on the OpenAI model. It assigns a price target of $6.50 to BBAI, suggesting a potential upside of about 18% from current levels. Wall Street analysts rate the stock as a Moderate Buy, predicting similar upside.
AI Analyst Also Sees Few Bright Spots
Looking ahead, BigBear.ai faces growing headwinds as declining revenue points to weakening demand and market share pressures. At the same time, ongoing negative margins signal operational inefficiencies and a lack of profitability, raising concerns about long-term sustainability.
In Q3 2025, BBAI’s revenue fell 20% to $33.1 million, mainly due to reduced work on some U.S. Army contracts. It also reported a net loss of $0.03 per share, and adjusted EBITDA remained negative at $9.4 million.
Adding to the risk, a sizable goodwill impairment suggests past acquisitions may have been overvalued, weighing on the balance sheet and denting investor confidence.
AI Analyst Spotlights Positives for Investors
The tool also highlights the positive factors influencing the company’s stock performance.
Among the positive factors, BigBear.ai’s expansion into the Middle East strengthens its global footprint. Meanwhile, the acquisition of Ask Sage boosts its AI capabilities in defense and national security. In addition, a record cash position adds financial flexibility, supporting growth initiatives and providing a buffer against uncertainty. The company ended the quarter with a record cash balance of $456.6 million as of September 30, 2025.
Is BBAI a Good Stock to Buy?
On TipRanks, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on BBAI stock, based on one Buy and one Hold assigned in the last three months. The average BigBear.ai share price target is $6.5, which implies an upside of 19.5% from current levels.
