BigBear.ai (BBAI) builds AI tools for defense and national security. The stock is up about 152% over the past year, helped by stronger-than-expected Q3 numbers and rising interest in AI used across military and government programs. More recently, the stock has pulled back about 26% over the past month due to broader market weakness and valuation concerns. Overall, Wall Street is cautiously optimistic about BigBear.ai stock, with the average price target implying an 11% upside potential.
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For context, BigBear.ai’s Q3 revenue fell 20% to $33.1 million, but surpassed analyst estimates of $31.81 million. The company also reported a net loss of $0.03 per share, better than the expected loss of $0.07 per share. Along with its earnings, BigBear.ai announced plans to buy Ask Sage, a generative AI platform for secure defense and national security use, in a $250 million deal.
Analysts’ Views on BBAI Stock
After the earnings release, H.C. Wainwright’s analyst Scott Buck maintained his Buy rating on BigBear.ai, pointing to the Ask Sage acquisition as the key reason for his positive stance. He believes the deal will support growth in defense and national security work, improve margins, and add recurring revenue.
Buck noted that while Q3 results were mixed, the company still holds solid cash reserves, giving room for future investment. He kept his $8 price target and said the Ask Sage deal could play a meaningful role in improving results by 2026, even as short-term risks remain.
Meanwhile, investor Chris Neiger remains cautious on BigBear.ai stock. He pointed to the company’s declining revenue and slower growth. Neiger highlighted that BigBear.ai had already cut its 2025 revenue outlook to $132.5 million from $170 million after missing earlier guidance. He also noted rising losses, with an adjusted loss of $8.5 million, more than double the prior year.
Despite those challenges, Neiger noted the stock was trading at a premium valuation, with a 13x price-to-sales ratio compared to 3.5x for the S&P 500 (SPX). In his view, much of the optimism was already reflected in the price, and slower growth could lead to a sharp pullback.
Is BBAI a Good Stock to Buy?
On TipRanks, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on BBAI stock, based on one Buy and one Hold assigned in the last three months. The average BigBear.ai share price target is $6.50, which implies upside potential of 11.30% from current levels.
