BigBear.ai (BBAI) stock jumped more than 15% on Thursday, continuing its sharp rally in 2025. The stock is now up about 85% year-to-date and over 240% in the past three months.
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Thursday’s surge came without any major news from the company. But investor excitement around defense-related AI stocks, along with gains in the broader market, likely fueled the move. Palantir (PLTR), one of the top names in this space, hit a record high this week. Its strong performance may be helping boost smaller players like BigBear.ai.
With second-quarter earnings due on August 11, the big question now is whether the company can back up this momentum with solid results.
What’s Driving the Stock Higher?
BigBear.ai recently introduced its VANE platform, an AI tool built to help with real-time battlefield planning. The company has also signed new contracts and announced key partnerships, including a biometric software rollout for airports and border checks.
One of its biggest wins came from a contract with the U.S. Department of Defense. That deal not only supports BigBear.ai financially but also adds credibility in the highly competitive defense tech space.
BigBear.ai has made solid progress, but it remains unprofitable. In Q1 2025, the company reported $34.8 million in revenue and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $7 million. Even so, its $385 million order backlog points to a strong pipeline and potential for future growth.
What’s Next for BBAI Stock?
BigBear.ai is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings on Monday, August 11. Wall Street analysts expect the company to report a loss per share of $0.06, slightly wider than the $0.05 loss in the same quarter last year. Meanwhile, revenue is expected to rise 3.5% year-over-year to $41.2 million.
BigBear.ai’s steep rally reflects strong optimism, but with earnings just around the corner, some investors may choose to wait for more clarity. If the company shows signs of stronger growth or improving margins, the stock could keep moving higher. But if results disappoint, a pullback may offer a better buying opportunity for those who believe in its long-term potential in defense AI.
Is BBAI Stock a Good Buy?
Currently, Wall Street is divided on BBAI stock, with a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on two Buys and two Hold recommendations. The average BigBear.ai stock price target of $4.25 indicates about 48.30% possible downside from current levels.
