BigBear.ai (BBAI) has delivered an impressive 74% gain so far this year, driven by investor enthusiasm around AI, government contracts, and growing demand for data-driven decision tools. The small-cap company, part of the Russell 2000 index, also benefits from increased visibility among small-cap investors.
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However, the stock’s rally has outpaced its fundamentals. The company is still working toward consistent profitability, and its revenue growth remains modest compared to other AI peers. Overall, after its big rally, it’s wise to stay cautious unless the company delivers strong guidance or signs major new contracts.
H.C. Wainwright Stands Firm on Bullish View
BigBear.ai delivers data-driven decision-making tools, mainly serving the U.S. defense, intelligence, and government sectors. This week, H.C. Wainwright analyst Scott Buck maintained a Buy rating on BBAI stock and raised his price target from $6 to $9. His new target suggests a 16% upside from current levels, compared to the average analyst consensus, which points to a 25% downside.
The research firm highlighted that BigBear.ai’s strong performance in 2025 was driven by new customer wins, steady contract growth, and rising demand for AI solutions in defense and security. Additionally, the firm noted that the company’s projected double-digit revenue growth for 2026 is backed by a robust $384.9 million order backlog as of Q1 2025.
Buck also pointed to recent milestones, including the rollout of biometric software for faster passenger processing at global airports and border checkpoints, a strategic alliance in the UAE, and a new collaboration with Analogic.
Insights from TipRanks’ Bulls Say, Bears Say
To understand where a stock might be headed, it’s important to pay attention to analyst opinions. Within this context, TipRanks’ Bulls Say, Bears Say tool helps investors by providing a balanced view, showcasing both the optimistic and cautious takes from Wall Street analysts.
Is BBAI a Good Stock to Buy?
Overall, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on BBAI stock, based on two Buy and two Hold recommendations. The average BigBear.ai share price target is $5.83, which implies a downside of 25% from current levels.
