Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) is gearing up to report its third-quarter results on November 4, and analysts are already sizing up what to expect after its latest delivery update earlier this month came in just ahead of forecasts.
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The EV maker delivered 13,200 vehicles in Q3, a touch above Wall Street’s 13,000-unit estimate, but that wasn’t enough to impress Barclays’ Dan Levy. The analyst had been expecting a bigger number, around 15,600, fueled by what he saw as a rush of buyers trying to lock in EV tax credits before they expired. Levy pointed out that while Ford, GM, and Tesla all posted record-breaking EV sales, Rivian’s growth looked “far more muted” by comparison.
Furthermore, Rivian slightly adjusted its full-year delivery outlook, narrowing the range to between 41,500 and 43,500 units (from 40,000 to 46,000), trimming about 500 units at the midpoint. But for Levy, the implied Q4 delivery range of 9,000 to 11,000 units is well above his previous estimate of 6,300, as the analyst anticipated a steeper drop in volumes following the expiration of the EV tax credit.
As for other metrics, Levy expects Rivian’s gross margins to improve sequentially, supported by stronger fixed cost absorption from higher volumes. This will likely be partially offset by tariff-related costs, which management indicated could add a few thousand dollars per vehicle. Reducing vehicle COGS remains the main priority, with investors closely watching R1 cost improvements as a key indicator of Rivian’s ability to achieve its targeted R2 cost structure.
Levy’s delivery expectations for Q3 and Q4 are not the only metrics where he differs from the Street. The analyst is below consensus on EBITDA, calling for -$638 million vs. the Street at -$569 million. However, Levy thinks that disappointment will not be much of a big deal if Rivian can please investors with some positive news on the R2 launch front.
“While EBITDA may disappoint, we see potential for a positive catalyst to the extent RIVN pulls forward timing of R2 launch,” the analyst said.
Is that a realistic possibility? It’s not out of the question. Rivian has guided for R2 production to begin in the first half of 2026. However, recent updates on X from CEO RJ Scaringe, who noted that the R2 body shop is nearly complete, have fueled speculation that R2 development is ahead of schedule, raising hopes for an earlier start of production than initially indicated.
That, however, is not enough for Levy to get off the RIVN sidelines for now. The analyst assigns RIVN shares an Equal Weight (i.e., Neutral) rating and a $14 price target. That said, the figure makes room for 12-month returns of 9%. (To watch Levy’s track record, click here)
Levy’s cautious stance echoes the broader sentiment on Wall Street. Across the Street, opinions are similarly mixed, with 11 Holds, 7 Buys, and 4 Sells combining for a Hold consensus. The average price target stands at $13.83, pointing to a modest 6% upside in the months ahead. (See RIVN stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.