Tesla Stock: What to Expect From Q2 Deliveries, According to Barclays

Q2 is now drawing to a close and we will soon get to find out if Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) delivery haul managed to improve on Q1’s abysmal performance.

According to Barclays analyst Dan Levy, investors should brace themselves for another lackluster display. Based on reported April/May data and early June reads, Levy reckons Q2 deliveries will reach ~375,000 units, some distance shy of the Street’s ~400,000 forecast. That suggests an increase of about 11% compared to the previous quarter, but a drop of roughly 16% year-over-year. Levy anticipates inventory will rise slightly by 5,000 units sequentially, bringing Tesla’s total inventory to approximately 120,000 to 130,000 units.

Levy sees see several factors influencing second-quarter deliveries when looking at sequential changes. Firstly, the global refresh of the Model Y is a positive, with the analyst expecting stronger sales this quarter since it includes a full three months of the refreshed Model Y being sold across all regions, compared to only about one month in the previous quarter.

However, on the downside, there’s the brand damage linked to CEO Elon Musk’s political involvement as reflected in protests like the “Tesla Takedown” in the US and boycotts in Europe. Investors seem to know this by now, and although management minimized the concerns during the first-quarter call, Levy thinks the weak Q2 numbers suggest the negative sentiment has lingered although the full extent of it is still unclear.

Sales in Europe – where anti-Tesla sentiment has been strong – have been soft so far this quarter, with combined April and May sales down about 12,000 units YoY (a 37% drop) and also 25% lower than sales in January and February of 2025, which is usually a slower period for sales.

Levy expects Q2 deliveries in Europe will reach roughly 51,000, representing a YoY decline of around 27,000 units and a sequential drop of about 4,000 units. That would mark the lowest quarterly result for the region since the third quarter of 2022, when deliveries stood at approximately 54,000. The softness appears to be fairly widespread across European markets. Ominously, Tesla’s sales in Europe have fallen even as the broader EV market continues to grow. Year-to-date through April, BEV (battery electric vehicle) sales across Europe are up 28% compared to the same period last year, while Tesla’s own sales are down 39% over the same period.

As for China, sales have been sluggish, with volumes over the first eleven weeks of the quarter down roughly 17% YoY and about 3% lower than the first quarter, which is typically a softer period. Levy is expecting around 135,000 deliveries – essentially flat compared to Q1, but down approximately 12,000 units YoY, representing an 8% drop.

Yet, despite Levy expecting weak deliveries, he thinks Q2 volumes “may be written of,” with investors’ attention now elsewhere.

“The Tesla narrative has increasingly turned to AV/Robotaxi, with investors likely more focused on the planned June 22nd Robotaxi launch and Tesla’s path to scaling AV than on 2Q deliveries/overall fundamentals,” Levy said.

For now, Levy remains on the sidelines here with an Equal Weight (i.e., Neutral) rating and $275 price target. There’s potential downside of 14.5% from current levels. (To watch Levy’s track record, click here)

The 35 TSLA reviews submitted over the past 3 months breakdown into 14 Buys, 12 Holds and 9 Sells, all culminating in a Hold consensus rating. At $286.14, the average target factors in a 12-month drop of 11%. (See Tesla stock forecast)

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.