It’s a big day for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors with Q2 earnings on deck. Once the market action draws to a close, all eyes will turn to Musk and Co., with Wall Street naturally keen to see how the quarter panned out for the EV giant.
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Heading into the print, Guggenheim analyst Ronald Jewsikow has flagged several key topics he believes are top of mind for investors.
First, auto gross margins (ex-credits) will be under the microscope. Buyside expectations for sit around 13.5%, slightly below consensus at 13.9%, while Jewsikow is modeling a more conservative 12.5%, although he acknowledges that the estimates are highly sensitive to changes in the FSD take rate. “While we are confident pricing is negative Q/Q, vs. buyside that seems to expect flattish pricing, we are less confident in our FSD take rate moderation given the sensitivity to how many Launch edition Model Ys were shipped,” the analyst explained. “While pricing is negative in our gross margin bridge, we believe reported ASPs should be up Q/Q driven by sizable FX tailwinds.”
Investors will also be watching for any updates to the full-year 2025 volume guide. Outside of a likely temporary lift in 3Q25 from demand being pulled forward ahead of the IRA credit expiration, the bigger question is how Tesla can drive a more durable return to growth. The refreshed Model Y and Model 3 haven’t meaningfully reignited demand, and year-over-year comparisons get tougher in the second half of the year, particularly in the U.S. and China. While most investors are expecting “healthy sequential growth” in 3Q25 relative to Q2, declines in 4Q25 vs. 4Q24 are “expected to be significant.”
On the FSD front, investors are anticipating an update on the next consumer release. Musk has indicated that Tesla plans to merge the current FSD version powering the Austin robotaxi fleet with the supervised consumer version. Clarity on what this unified model brings – beyond just expanded parameters – would be “appreciated.”
With nearly a month of operating data from the Austin robotaxi network – and no major safety incidents – investors will likely expect Musk to strike a confident tone around expansion plans. There’s growing anticipation that Tesla will formally announce the next phase of its robotaxi rollout alongside 2Q earnings.
Additionally, investors will be looking for updated timelines and production plans for Tesla’s humanoid robot, especially following recent leadership changes. “While TSLA bulls are optimistic around the humanoid robot project, bears are both struggling with timelines and sustainable competitive advantages TSLA has within the humanoid business (we appreciate TSLA engineering prowess, but the same data/training advantages for FSD are unlikely to apply here),” the analyst said.
But what does Jewsikow think? He remains one of the Street’s TSLA bears, maintaining a Sell rating and $175 price target for the stock. There’s potential downside of 47% from current levels. (To watch Jewsikow’s track record, click here)
6 other analysts also view TSLA’s prospects in a negative light and with an additional 13 Buys and 12 Holds, the stock claims a Hold consensus rating. The average target stands at $299.52, suggesting shares will decline by 10% in the months ahead. (See Tesla stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.