Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) uphill battle to gain traction among consumers showed again this week, when it reported Q2 deliveries that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
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The EV maker reported Q2 deliveries of 10,661 units, missing the ~12,200 consensus estimate. While the figure represented a 23.4% sequential increase it also amounted to a 22.7% decline vs. the same quarter last year. Production during the quarter hit 5,979 vehicles, down 37.8% year-over-year. Management explained that production was constrained in preparation for the launch of the 2026 model year vehicles, expected later in the month.
Still, the company reiterated its full-year 2025 delivery guide, targeting between 40,000 and 46,000 vehicles. The first half of the year’s total came in slightly above 19,000. So to reach the midpoint of the guide, Rivian would need to deliver ~24,000 vehicles in the second half of the year – a significant increase from the current pace.
Importantly, Rivian confirmed receiving another planned cash injection from Volkswagen as part of their JV. On June 30, it secured a $1 billion equity investment that followed Rivian’s achievement of two consecutive quarters with positive gross margins and forms part of the larger $5.8 billion agreement between the two companies.
While investors sent shares down by 4.5% in the aftermath, for Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas, the 2Q25 delivery announcement was a “non-event.”
“In a good way,” he says. Basically, this is all just a prelude to the main event. That is, the release of the R2. While the wait continues, CEO RJ Scaringe recently shared a video showing the new model “at the gym” undergoing testing. Management’s latest remarks indicate that the rollout for the first half of 2026 remains on schedule, with an anticipated starting price of approximately $45,000. “The future of Rivian hinges on R2 product success,” says Gianarikas, “it could be a company and industry game changer.”
No pressure, then. Gianarikas’ overall take is that the West requires a second EV leader to complement Tesla. “That, in our strong opinion,” he goes on to say, “should be Rivian.”
The recent JV with Volkswagen addresses a major portion of Rivian’s capital concerns, supports the company’s path to scaling, and has the potential to position the Rivian/Volkswagen JV as the “next-gen vehicle platform of choice in the Western world, outside of Tesla.”
“As other OEMs retreat from EV commitments — either by design or compelled by demand issues — we believe Rivian has a unique, timely opportunity to push forward, pull ahead of the non-Tesla pack, and establish itself as the next American auto icon,” Gianarikas summed up.
Time will tell if Rivian can attain that status. Meanwhile, the analyst maintained a Buy rating on the shares along with a Street-high $23 price target. There’s potential upside of 74% from current levels. (To watch Gianarikas’ track record, click here)
The Street’s average target is a more modest $14.64, implying shares will climb 11% higher in the months ahead. On the rating front, based on a mix of 13 Holds, 7 Buys, and 3 Sells, the analyst consensus rates the stock a Hold. (See Rivian stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.