Netflix (NFLX) stock has been trading above the 50-week moving average in price for about a year and a half, but that can’t deter the market. Investors recognize that this is one of the most durable stocks, driven by an addictive flywheel of growth in recurring revenue. As TipRanks data shows, NFLX has consistently grown paid memberships since 2020—a remarkable feat, considering the global competition it faces.
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This is a company that has evolved from a DVD rental disruptor into a global streaming leader, now backed by financials driven by ad-tier growth, an AI-powered studio, and a powerful live content strategy. The only element that’s not to love is the valuation, but sometimes the best investments thrive despite that predicament, so I’m staying bullish on NFLX stock.
Netflix Demonstrates Strategic Positioning to Curate Leading Financials
Netflix has established itself as a truly global enterprise, now available in over 190 countries. It continues to demonstrate strong user engagement, holding a 7.5% share of U.S. television viewership. Its pricing strength is evident in its average revenue per user of $17.20 per month in North America and Canada.
While the company faces competitive pressures from short-form video platforms such as TikTok and YouTube, as well as saturation in mature markets, these challenges are consistent with the realities of being a market leader. In any thriving sector, competitors will inevitably seek to gain ground, but well-established organizations like Netflix have consistently demonstrated resilience and adaptability in maintaining their leadership positions.
Netflix’s growth performance remains impressive. For example, its forward diluted earnings per share are projected to grow by 37%, significantly outpacing the sector average of 10%. Although this is reflected in its forward non-GAAP price-to-earnings ratio of 49—versus 13 for the sector—this valuation appears proportionate when considering the company’s earnings growth rate, which is 3.7 times higher than the sector’s, effectively aligning with its relative valuation multiple.
Financially, Netflix is on solid footing. The company has reduced its net debt to approximately $7.9 billion, highlighting the success of its self-sustaining content investment strategy. With expected free cash flow of around $8 billion in fiscal year 2025, management has been able to allocate substantial resources to shareholder returns, including $3.5 billion in share repurchases as of Q1.
These achievements are underpinned by a global subscriber base approaching 300 million. Recent growth initiatives, including password-sharing controls and the introduction of an ad-supported tier, have contributed meaningfully to this momentum.
Growth Catalysts Fuel Bullish Sentiment
Netflix’s ad-supported tier has experienced rapid uptake, now reaching approximately 94 million users. Ad revenue is projected to double in fiscal year 2025, reflecting the success of this segment. To further optimize monetization and support shareholder returns, Netflix has developed a proprietary ad-tech platform designed to improve targeting and increase revenue per user. These developments are part of a broader, well-integrated ecosystem that enables both revenue growth and margin expansion. In essence, Netflix has developed a business model that generates long-term value, thereby reinforcing its attractiveness as an investment opportunity.
Under a base-case scenario, Netflix could generate approximately $28 in trailing twelve-month normalized earnings per share by mid-2026. Assuming a modest contraction in its non-GAAP price-to-earnings ratio to 50 (down from the current 59, in line with expected growth normalization), this would imply a stock price of roughly $1,400 in a year.
Given today’s price of $1,280, that equates to nearly a 10% upside potential. While this return is respectable, it may not meet the threshold for more aggressive investors seeking 20–30% annualized gains. The company’s strong fundamentals and strategic vision explain why its stock has outperformed the S&P 500 (SPX) so far this year.
Operationally, Netflix continues to demonstrate forward-thinking leadership. The company is investing in AI to enhance its content development capabilities, with a focus on producing high-margin, lower-budget titles. This includes an emphasis on quality storytelling—such as international productions with subtitles—over costly star-driven projects. In many respects, Netflix embodies the spirit of a lean, innovative startup that has successfully scaled while maintaining its core identity. That consistency is commendable.
Is Netflix a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
On Wall Street, Netflix has a consensus Strong Buy rating based on 29 Buys, nine Holds, and zero Sells. However, the average NFLX stock price target is $1,255.76, indicating a 1.5% downside over the next 12 months.
Current analyst consensus reinforces my earlier point regarding the stock’s premium valuation. However, I believe Netflix still has considerable momentum and over the long term, any significant decline in the stock is unlikely to occur without an external catalyst. Fundamentally, Netflix remains on a solid trajectory.
Netflix Is an Expensive High-Tech Stalwart
Clearly, this isn’t a stock to aggressively accumulate at current levels. It may be prudent to wait for a more attractive valuation. That said, I remain bullish on Netflix’s long-term prospects. The company is led by a competent management team and benefits from a strong competitive moat built around a financially disciplined and strategically integrated digital entertainment ecosystem.
Like all equities, Netflix will inevitably face periods of pullback, and when that happens, I’m prepared to step in to add to my position at more favorable prices.