Coinbase Global Stock (COIN) Prepares for S&P 500 Listing With 16% Spike

Cryptoeconomy enabler Coinbase Global (COIN) rallied 16% over the past five days to celebrate its public listing on the S&P 500 index, scheduled for next week.

Coinbase’s addition to the S&P 500 marks a historic milestone as the first cryptocurrency exchange included in the index, symbolizing a step toward mainstream acceptance of crypto. This move is expected to boost institutional interest and attract new capital, especially through passive funds that must buy S&P 500 components, effectively making Coinbase and, by extension, Bitcoin (BTC), a “must-own” investment.

However, while rosy developments are nice to see for existing shareholders, I remain neutral on the stock due to risks like potential overvaluation, declining earnings, revenue concentration, and increasing competition.

Fundamental Challenges Persist Despite S&P 500 Boost

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, who holds a Buy rating on Coinbase, estimates that its inclusion in the S&P 500 could attract approximately $16 billion in passive and active fund inflows, potentially boosting the stock further. However, with Coinbase’s market capitalization already having surged by $10 billion, much of this anticipated inflow may be priced in. The focus now shifts to the company’s underlying fundamentals.

Coinbase earns revenue through transactions, subscriptions, and services, mostly coming from transaction fees such as spreads and retail trading fees. In its Q1 2025 earnings report published earlier this month, Coinbase saw a 10% decline in trading volume, leading to total revenue of $2 billion—a 10% drop quarter-over-quarter—and transaction revenue falling 19% quarter-over-quarter to $1.3 billion.

The company attributed this decline to crypto market volatility and ongoing uncertainty. Ultimately, much of Coinbase’s performance remains closely linked to the health and activity of the cryptocurrency market.

Wider Crypto Story Fails to Live Up to the Hype

Widespread adoption of cryptocurrency will inevitably require government involvement. Crypto enthusiasts hoped President Donald Trump, a vocal supporter of cryptocurrencies, would help legitimize the space. However, meaningful legislation has yet to materialize, and Trump’s so-called “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” which doesn’t involve actual cryptocurrency purchases, fell short of expectations.

In fact, Trump appears to have used cryptocurrency primarily for personal gain, as seen in recent meme coin promotions and family ventures. Meanwhile, Bitcoin trading remains banned in countries like China, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Recognizing its heavy reliance on Bitcoin, Coinbase is diversifying by expanding into more stable revenue streams such as custody services, staking, and institutional offerings.

Coinbase faces fierce competition in this uncertain landscape from exchanges like Binance, Kraken, Robinhood, Gate.io, and Gemini. Binance remains the global leader, holding a 38% market share as of April 2025. Each platform has its own strengths and weaknesses, catering to different user bases based on factors like geography and user experience. This makes the crypto exchange space highly competitive, with no single player dominant enough to eliminate the rest. That said, Coinbase’s early entry into the U.S. market and strong regulatory compliance provide it with a notable advantage domestically.

Despite experiencing a sequential revenue decline, Coinbase clearly did something right to earn its spot in the S&P 500. Coinbase remains profitable, and critically, has the financial strength to withstand short-term cryptocurrency volatility, as evidenced by a significantly improved debt-to-asset ratio. 

What is the Target Price for Coinbase?

On Wall Street, COIN sports a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 12 Buy, 11 Hold, and zero Sell ratings in the past three months. COIN’s average price target of $264.19 represents potential upside of 8% over the next twelve months. 

See more COIN analyst ratings

Earlier this month, analyst Ed Engel of Compass Point upgraded COIN to Hold with a price target of $195. The analyst expressed optimism and caution surrounding the emergence of altcoins. While he noted that altcoins could increase trading activity, he also recognized their structural challenges. 

Oppenheimer’s Owen Lau is more bullish on COIN, slapping an Outperform rating on the stock and a price target of $293. Oppenheimer believes the stock’s inclusion has huge implications for Coinbase and the crypto industry as a whole. According to the analyst, getting into the S&P 500 not only increases purchases from index funds but also puts Coinbase under the closer radar of non-index funds that benchmark against the S&P 500.

Valuation and Volatility Call for Caution Despite Listing Milestone

Coinbase’s inclusion in the S&P 500 marks a significant milestone for both the company and the cryptocurrency industry, but much of this positive news is already reflected in its stock price. COIN currently trades at a lofty P/E ratio of ~50—more than double the sector median—reflecting high expectations.

While its impressive revenue growth of over 100% in 2024 partially justifies this premium, that growth pace is unlikely to continue, with future projections more modest. Coinbase’s heavy reliance on cryptocurrency trading volume creates earnings uncertainty, compounded by ongoing political and regulatory risks and fierce competition in the exchange market. Given these factors, it’s wise to temper enthusiasm and take a more cautious stance on COIN stock.