Coinbase Global (COIN) Adds Market Torque as U.S. Senate Ushers in Tokenized Trading

Coinbase Global (COIN) stock is flying after two pivotal developments: the U.S. Senate’s passage of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act and Coinbase’s push to gain SEC approval for tokenized equity trading.

Both have massive implications for the crypto economy-focused financial technology company. While the regulatory skies are clearing for Coinbase, broader market adoption of digital assets, competition, and high expectations are reasons for caution in the years ahead, leaving me cautiously optimistic on its stock. 

In its most recent quarterly report, COIN announced earnings per share of $0.24, with revenues of $2 billion, which disappointed analysts who had expected EPS of $1.94. The company’s forward P/E ratio is currently 53.6 compared to the sector average of 10.36. Despite this result in early May, COIN stock has gone on to vault beyond $300 per share.

The GENIUS Act Legitimizes Stablecoins and Powers USDC’s Growth

Regulatory uncertainty has long been a major overhang for Coinbase and other crypto-centric firms, but the recent progress of the GENIUS Act marks a potential turning point. Passed by the Senate on June 17 with strong bipartisan support (68–30 vote), the Act lays out the first federal framework for stablecoin regulation, including key provisions like 1:1 reserve backing in safe assets (e.g., U.S. dollars) and anti-money laundering compliance.

Crucially for Coinbase, the bill also permits non-bank entities to issue stablecoins—a major win, given the company’s deep partnership with Circle Internet Group (CRCL), the issuer of USD Coin (USDC). The company’s shares rose 33% in late Wednesday trade last week and are now trading 87% higher.

As the second-largest dollar-backed stablecoin, USDC plays a growing role in Coinbase’s business model. In the most recent quarter, USDC revenue reached $298 million, accounting for roughly 15% of Coinbase’s total revenue and growing at an impressive 51% year-over-year, more than double the company’s overall revenue growth of 23%.

If enacted into law, the GENIUS Act could help legitimize and accelerate Coinbase’s stablecoin strategy, strengthening a rapidly expanding revenue stream.

Tapping the Trillion-Dollar Stablecoin Opportunity

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently projected that the stablecoin market could grow to $3.7 trillion in the coming years—a staggering figure that underscores the potential of this emerging asset class.

For those unfamiliar, stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to assets like the U.S. dollar or gold. This structure allows users to benefit from fast, low-cost digital transactions while avoiding the extreme volatility typically associated with crypto assets.

As the largest registered crypto exchange in the U.S. and a key player behind USD Coin (USDC), Coinbase is strategically positioned to capture a meaningful share of this rapidly expanding market.

Coinbase’s Bold Tokenized Equities Play

At the same time, Coinbase is actively exploring tokenized trading, a technology that could enable 24/7 market access, faster settlement, and greater global reach. Tokenized equities—digital versions of traditional company shares that operate on blockchain infrastructure—have the potential to transform capital markets by improving efficiency and accessibility.

Currently, however, tokenized equity trading remains prohibited in the U.S. Yet, the recent advancement of the GENIUS Act suggests a shifting regulatory climate that is becoming more receptive to digital assets. In that context, Coinbase’s efforts to influence and align with regulators appear to be well-timed and strategically positioned for future adoption.

COIN Must Navigate Legislative Hurdles

Despite recent encouraging developments, key risks still loom. The GENIUS Act, while promising, is still making its way through the legislative process—and as history shows, bipartisan support in the Senate doesn’t guarantee smooth passage in the House. Political pushback could result in amendments that dilute the bill’s benefits for companies like Coinbase.

Additionally, the path to tokenized equities remains uncertain. Their future hinges not only on favorable regulation but also on broad market acceptance and infrastructure readiness, making widespread adoption a longer-term and less certain prospect.

Is Coinbase Global a Buy or Sell?

On Wall Street, COIN sports a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 13 Buy, 11 Hold, and zero Sell ratings in the past three months. COIN’s average price target of $268.70 implies ~13% downside potential over the next 12 months.

Bear in mind that COIN is up nearly 21% in the past five days, so its average price target hasn’t yet adjusted to several analyst upgrades. 

See more COIN analyst ratings

In May, analyst Mark Palmer from Benchmark Co. maintained a Buy rating on COIN with a price target of $252. The rating followed Coinbase’s inclusion in the S&P 500, which the analyst believes is “likely to attract passive investment flows from funds tracking the index.”

Moreover, he noted that its “selection by the S&P 500 Committee also underscores Coinbase’s adherence to high standards of profitability, regulatory compliance, and governance, reinforcing the company’s strategic position in the financial sector.”

COIN Enters Regulatory Slipstream

Coinbase is benefiting from a wave of favorable developments that could accelerate the adoption of both its trading platform and USDC. The GENIUS Act, if fully passed, would legitimize Coinbase’s fast-growing stablecoin business and strengthen its position as a key player in the digital asset ecosystem.

At the same time, the company’s pursuit of SEC approval for tokenized equity trading represents a bold strategic move that, if successful, could disrupt traditional finance and diversify Coinbase’s revenue beyond transaction fees.

This combination of regulatory momentum and long-term innovation presents a strong case for bullish investors, even as Coinbase’s valuation remains elevated at a P/E of 55.3.

However, competition from platforms like Robinhood (HOOD) and stablecoins, like PayPal’s (PYPL) “PayPal USD,” should not be overlooked. The GENIUS Act is also still pending final approval, and specific provisions—such as tighter regulatory scrutiny—may introduce new operational risks.

Overall, Coinbase remains a high-risk, high-reward opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the rapidly evolving crypto space.