Alphabet’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) AI search endeavors have taken center stage in recent times, but that’s not the only part of the wide-reaching business where AI is gaining traction.
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Waymo, Alphabet’s autonomous vehicle unit, completed 1.02 million driverless rides in California in September, according to an updated report from the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) released this week. Ride growth in the state accelerated to 15% month-over-month, up from 13% in August, following a strong increase in July after lower vehicle deployment in June due to protests in Los Angeles and San Francisco. Average trip length also increased, reaching a new high of 6.46 miles per ride in September.
As Waymo broadens its service areas, Cowen analyst John Blackledge expects average trip distances to rise across cities. The company is currently testing driverless rides at San Jose Mineta International Airport (SJC) and safety driver-led rides at San Francisco International Airport (SFO), while Phoenix remains the only airport where Waymo offers full commercial service. Additionally, on November 12, Waymo announced that freeway access will be introduced for select riders in Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco, further expanding its service coverage in each market.
Blackledge, who ranks among the top 5% of Street stock experts, reckons that Waymo is now completing “well over” 300,000 paid rides per week, compared with the more than 250,000 weekly rides disclosed by management during Q1 earnings in April, before the company’s Atlanta launch in June. Recent data suggests that paid rides in California reached roughly 240,000 per week in September, up about 31% from around 180,000 per week in April. Waymo’s co-CEO has stated that the company aims to reach one million paid rides per week by the end of 2026, supported by existing markets – Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, and Atlanta – as well as planned 2026 launches in Miami, Washington D.C., Dallas, Nashville, San Diego, Las Vegas, and London. Waymo has also begun testing in Detroit, Denver, Seattle, New York City, and Tokyo, though management has not indicated when these markets will transition to paid service.
The 5-star analyst estimates that Waymo will end 2026 with approximately 5,100 vehicles across its Waymo One service and partner network, up from the prior forecast of 3,800 and an increase from roughly 2,400 vehicles in 2025. Looking further ahead, Blackledge sees the fleet exceeding 31,000 vehicles by 2030, compared with his previous forecast of about 15,000.
As Waymo “aggressively enters new markets, expanding its partner network across rideshare (Uber, Lyft) and fleet management platforms,” the analyst also now forecasts Waymo will complete around 27 million paid rides in 2026 (vs. an earlier estimate of 22 million), up from an estimated 14 million in 2025, and growing to roughly 164 million by 2030 (compared with 91 million beforehand).
So, what does this ultimately mean for investors? Blackledge maintained a Buy rating on GOOGL shares, backed by a $335 price target. Should the figure be met, investors will be pocketing returns of 17% a year from now. (To watch Blackledge’s track record, click here)
Elsewhere on the Street, GOOGL stock claims an additional 29 Buys and 7 Holds, for a Strong Buy consensus rating. Going by the $312.29 average target, a year from now, shares will be changing hands for a 9% premium. (See GOOGL stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.