Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) stock appears to be reaping the benefits from the removal of a major overhang. The shares have gained nearly 19% since September 2, following a favorable antitrust remedy proposal from DC District Court Judge Mehta. The judge’s approach was cautious, appearing to dismiss the Department of Justice’s major structural requests, such as divesting Chrome and Android or prohibiting payments to distribution partners. Google will probably need to share certain data with competitors, while outright competitive restrictions are unlikely to be imposed.
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The market’s upbeat reaction makes sense to Piper Sandler analyst Thomas Champion. “We think the market is appropriately reflecting a positive outcome for GOOGL, which is avoiding a structural remedy or wholesale rewiring of the distribution / OEM economic order,” Champion said. “In our view, the market has appropriately decided that GOOGL warrants a multiple re-rating, and we foresee healthy spending trends on the advertiser side.”
Given the Google ruling, Champion has raised some estimates, with the analyst now anticipating FY25 revenue of $396.9 billion (up from $395.7 billion beforehand), while the FY26 revenue forecast goes from $445.1 billion to $448.1 billion.
Meanwhile, spend data from Piper Sandler’s Ad Buyer survey points to continued acceleration into 3Q25, although Q3 estimates have been slightly revised downward from last quarter. YouTube spend is expected to remain in the low-double-digit range, while Search continues in the mid-single-digit range. Traffic figures from Statcounter appear negative, though historically they haven’t strongly correlated with reported results. On a positive note, Polymarket suggests Google now has over a 75% probability of finishing 2025 with the leading LLM in Gemini. “Given the valuations implied for OpenAI’s recent funding rounds, we think this point alone is enough to drive multiple expansion,” Champion said.
Overall, Champion keeps a bullish stance on the stock. Search could see renewed acceleration in 2026, and while rising CAPEX is a potential concern – particularly if interest rates keep declining – execution remains strong, supported by new ad product launches such as AI Max for Search Campaigns.
Accordingly, Champion rates GOOGL as Overweight while the analyst has also raised his price target from $220 to $285, suggesting there’s upside of 14% from current levels. (To watch Champion’s track record, click here)
27 other analysts join Champion in the bull camp, while 9 Holds can’t detract from a Strong Buy consensus rating. That said, the $237.94 average target factors in a 12-month slide of 5%. It will be interesting to see whether other analysts update their targets or downgrade their ratings shortly. (See GOOGL stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.