Archer Aviation (ACHR) is back in focus as investors weigh two very different takes on its future. Short seller Grizzly Research issued a sharp report last week, likening the electric air taxi firm to troubled truck start-up Nikola and calling it the “Nikola of the Skies.” Shortly after, an investor writing under the name Undercovered Deep Insights presented a bullish outlook, citing Archer’s strong cash position, global expansion, and defense ambitions.
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Bullish Case from Undercovered Deep Insights
According to the investor, Archer Aviation’s balance sheet sets it apart from many peers. The company raised $850 million in the second quarter and ended with $1.7 billion in liquidity, giving it a financial cushion to support heavy spending.
The analysis also highlights Archer’s progress overseas. The company delivered a production aircraft to Abu Dhabi and signed agreements with Abu Dhabi Aviation to launch routes. In addition, Archer secured the role of official air taxi provider for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. The investor notes that the company expects $20 million to $30 million in sales from United Arab Emirates operations over the next two years, with more agreements under discussion in other regions.
Archer is also pushing into defense through recent acquisitions of patents and facilities that could help support long-term contracts. Although the company is spending more than $100 million per quarter, the investor argues that its large cash position provides a sector-leading runway.
Doubts Raised by Grizzly Research
Grizzly Research paints a far more cautious picture. The short seller claims that Archer’s Midnight aircraft design faces technical flaws that will make regulatory approval difficult. The report also questions the company’s $6 billion order book, pointing to customers with weak finances or limited track records. Examples include Air Chateau, which has only purchased one helicopter, and Future Flight Global, a small firm with no history in aviation.
The report further points out that a deal with KakaoMobility in Korea was canceled yet still appears in Archer’s pipeline. It also highlights that only a fraction of Archer’s $142 million U.S. Air Force contract has been recognized so far.
During a site visit to Archer’s Georgia factory, Grizzly reported little visible production activity and argued that the company’s target of building 650 aircraft per year is not realistic. The report also criticized Archer’s reliance on high-profile events and marketing, noting that aircraft shown in Abu Dhabi promotions were reused units.
In contrast, Grizzly says rival Joby Aviation (JOBY) is making steadier progress toward certification and commercial operations. The firm views Archer’s push into defense as a late attempt to shift the story rather than a solid strategy.
Stock Under Pressure
Archer Aviation shares have dropped nearly 14% year-to-date and just under 10% in the past five trading sessions. Investors now face competing narratives: one that questions Archer’s orders, production, and credibility, and another that sees cash strength, early overseas sales, and multiple growth paths. For now, the stock remains caught between skepticism and optimism, with volatility likely to continue.
Is Archer Aviation Stock a Good Buy?
Despite the conflicting views, Wall Street analysts remain optimistic about the company. Based on seven recent ratings, Archer Aviation boasts a “Strong Buy” consensus with an average 12-month price target of $13.14. This implies a 56.62% upside from the current price.
