AI has been the biggest theme on Wall Street in recent times, but it is not the only game in town. Another area drawing investor attention is the emerging field of eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) aircraft – machines that can be described in more layman’s terms as flying taxis.
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Still in the pre-certification phase, eVTOL aircraft are on the cusp of reshaping how people move through cities – promising fast, quiet, zero-emission flights that bypass gridlocked streets. That vision is fueling big growth expectations. The global eVTOL market, valued at $5.41 billion in 2021, is projected by Fortune Business Insights to surge to $23.21 billion by 2028, reflecting a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 23.13% over the period.
Naturally, that kind of growth is bound to draw more investors in, and the field has evidently caught the attention of billionaire Ken Griffin. As the founder and CEO of Citadel, one of the world’s most profitable hedge funds with more than $60 billion under management, Griffin has been steadily building positions in the sector.
Specifically, he has been loading up on two of the industry’s most prominent players – Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) and Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY).
Griffin’s activity suggests strong conviction, but do Wall Street analysts share his enthusiasm? To find out, we ran both tickers through the TipRanks database. Here’s what the Street is saying.
Archer Aviation
The first Griffin-endorsed flying taxi firm we’ll look at is Archer Aviation, a company that has already secured a very high-profile gig. Archer has been selected as the official air taxi provider for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic and Paralympic Games, as well as for Team USA.
But that is a few years away and there is still plenty that needs to fall into place so that can happen. Archer is still progressing through the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) certification process, although it is on track to launch elsewhere beforehand; the company expects to introduce its Midnight air taxi in the UAE by year’s end, launching operations through its Launch Edition program. This initiative is designed to deploy its Midnight eVTOL aircraft in early-adopter markets to build operational expertise. The program currently includes partnerships with Abu Dhabi Aviation, Ethiopian Airlines, and PT. Industri Ketahanan Nasional (IKN) in Indonesia.
Archer currently has 6 Midnight aircraft in production, with three already in final assembly at its facilities. Getting the business off the ground requires deep pockets, and Archer appears well-funded; the company currently has $1.7 billion in cash and is supported by auto giant Stellantis.
The company also has another avenue for growth via its Archer Defense segment, and recently made two strategic acquisitions to fast-track its next-gen defense aircraft: a patent portfolio and key talent from Overair, and composite manufacturing assets plus a 60,000 sq. ft. facility from Mission Critical Composites in Southern California.
Griffin must find all of this quite enticing; during Q2, the billionaire scooped up 4,312,981 shares, almost doubling his stake, which now stands at 8.68 million shares. These holdings are currently worth ~$73 million.
Archer also gets the backing of H.C. Wainwright analyst Amit Dayal, who believes the company is making all the right moves.
“We believe management continues to largely execute against the targeted milestones established to meet initial commercialization goals during 2026,” Dayal said. “Though primary focus remains on completing certification steps in various markets, the company is beginning to leverage its manufacturing infrastructure to build six Midnight aircraft, three of which are in final assembly. We believe Archer is progressing type certification efforts alongside efforts to secure production certificate to be able to move quickly towards production once these are obtained… We continue to maintain that certification completion, initial passenger flights, and aircraft deliveries should be the key catalysts for the stock. Investors should continue to expect heavy news flow for the company, and the industry in general over the next few quarters.”
Bottom line, Dayal rates ACHR shares a Buy while his $18 price target points toward one-year gains of a strong 113%. (To watch Dayal’s track record, click here)
The rest of the Street is mostly bullish too; based on a mix of 6 Buys and 1 Hold, the stock claims a Strong Buy consensus rating. At $13.14, the average price target implies shares will climb 55% higher over the one-year timeframe. (See ACHR stock forecast)
Joby Aviation
Archer might have nabbed the LA Olympics deal, but its peer/rival Joby Aviation has been turning heads with some eye-catching developments of its own.
Its fully electric air taxis are designed to carry up to four passengers at speeds of up to 200 mph (~320 km/h), offering a quiet, zero-emissions alternative to traditional transportation, and in April Joby achieved a significant milestone by completing its first piloted eVTOL transition flight with a pilot onboard. The aircraft performed a vertical takeoff, transitioned to wingborne flight, and landed vertically.
That was followed in June by a series of piloted, full-transition eVTOL flights in Dubai, marking the first such flights in the region. These flights are part of Joby’s efforts to establish commercial air taxi services in Dubai, with plans to launch operations by early 2026.
Then in August, Joby completed its first piloted eVTOL air taxi flight between two public airports in the U.S., flying from Marina Municipal Airport (OAR) to Monterey Regional Airport (MRY) in California. The roughly 12-minute flight covered about 10 nautical miles and was the first piloted eVTOL trip between public airports in FAA-controlled airspace.
Additionally, Joby has completed ~70% of phase 4 of the FAA’s five-stage type certification process. The company plans to begin Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) flights with FAA pilots in early 2026, a critical step toward final certification.
As for Griffin, he hasn’t been shy about getting the checkbook out for JOBY. He upped his holdings by 127% during Q2, loading up on 3,547,578 shares. Griffin’s stake now stands at 6.34 million shares, which command a market value of ~$83 million.
Needham analyst Chris Pierce sees plenty of reasons why Griffin might be so bullish: “It’s hard to argue against JOBY’s leadership position. JOBY is the category creator/leader at this time, reaping the benefits with an outsize valuation vs peers, with a slew of positive headlines (first piloted eVTOL transition flight, piloted flight in Dubai, increasing aircraft production cadence) stoking enthusiasm from bulls and putting bears fully on their heels given the positive surprise nature of the headlines vs JOBY achieving previously communicated milestones… We are bullish on the future of eVTOL adoption and growth over the medium and longer term. We believe JOBY will be a long-term winner in the market due to their early software focus, partnership with UBER, and FAA air taxi regulation advancements.”
Conveying his confidence, Pierce rates JOBY stock a Buy with a $22 price target, implying a 68% upside from where shares sit today. (To watch Pierce’s track record, click here)
That’s the bullish view, but elsewhere on the Street, a more skeptical outlook emerges; the stock claims a Hold (i.e., Neutral) consensus rating, based on 4 Holds and 1 Buy and Sell, each. The forecast calls for a one-year slide of 5%, considering the average price target stands at $12.40. (See JOBY stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.