Apple Stock Gets a Cold Dose of Skepticism as Needham Slashes 2025 Forecast

Apple stock (AAPL) just took another hit — and this one comes with a cold dose of analyst skepticism. On Wednesday, Needham analyst Laura Martin downgraded Apple to Hold from Buy, citing a valuation that’s just not holding up against reality.

Martin laid out her case without sugarcoating it. “We believe that, for Apple shares to work, they must have the catalyst of an iPhone replacement cycle, which we do not foresee in the next 12 months,” she said in a note. She also removed her $225 price target entirely, suggesting instead that $170–$180 per share is a more reasonable entry point.

As of Wednesday morning, Apple was trading at $202.20, already down 19% on the year — making it the worst performer among the so-called Magnificent Seven tech giants.

Apple Trails Peers as AI Delays Cloud Outlook

The numbers don’t lie. Apple’s annual revenue growth clocked in at just 5% last quarter — well below Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), or Meta (META). And it’s not just the earnings. It’s the AI race.

Apple’s delayed AI overhaul of Siri has done little to stir excitement for the upcoming iPhone 17. Meanwhile, companies like Meta and Google are experimenting with smart glasses—a product that might one day challenge the smartphone itself.

Martin warned that in a GenAI world, Apple’s dependence on its hardware “take rate” of 15–30% could become a problem. “Every Big Tech company is building platforms designed to displace Apple’s integrated hardware and software,” she wrote.

Wall Street Splits on Apple Ahead of WWDC

But not everyone’s turning bearish. Bank of America Securities analysts defended Apple this week, saying its strategy to enable AI directly on-device could win out over time. Citi also kept its Buy rating, citing Apple’s massive user base of 2.35 billionas a long-term strength.

Apple’s next big moment is next week’s Worldwide Developers Conference. Let’s see if they can prove their AI vision has substance — and finally give investors a reason to believe the stock’s premium price tag is still justified.

Is Apple a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Despite the muted excitement heading into WWDC, Wall Street hasn’t lost faith. According to TipRanks data, Apple (AAPL) holds a Moderate Buy consensus based on 29 analyst ratings. That breaks down into 17 Buys, eight Holds, and just four Sells — a fairly bullish vote of confidence even in a lower-expectation environment.

The average 12-month AAPL price target sits at $228.65, suggesting a 11.5% upside from the current price.

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