Tech giant Apple (AAPL) is scheduled to announce its results for the first quarter of Fiscal 2026 on January 29. AAPL stock has risen 15% over the past year but is down 6% so far in 2026. While Apple bulls are confident about the stock due to solid iPhone 17 demand, some analysts are cautious amid several challenges, including intense competition and higher memory costs. According to TipRanks’ Options Tool, options traders expect about a 4.15% move in either direction in AAPL stock in reaction to Q1 FY26 earnings.
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This implied move is higher than Apple stock’s average post-earnings move (in absolute terms) of 1.82% over the past four quarters.
Meanwhile, Wall Street expects Apple to report earnings per share (EPS) of $2.67 for Q1 FY26, reflecting an 11.3% year-over-year growth. Revenue is estimated to rise 11.6% to $138.40 billion.
Top JPMorgan Analyst Is Bullish About Apple’s Q1 Earnings
Heading into Q1 earnings, JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee increased his price target for Apple stock to $315 from $305 and reiterated a Buy rating. The 5-star analyst noted that AAPL stock has underperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) over the last two months, as solid iPhone 17 demand signals have been overshadowed by investor concerns over gross margin pressure from the “unprecedented” rise in memory costs and potential price elasticity worries for iPhone demand. He also noted slight concerns about softer intra-quarter data points for App Store Services growth.
Nonetheless, Chatterjee sees a positive set up for AAPL stock heading into December quarter earnings, given that shares are trading at an attractive P/E (price-to-earnings) multiple of 30x next 12 months earnings, below the peak multiple that is generally seen ahead of a key iPhone product cycle (previous peak of ~32x into 5G cycle), along with expectations of modest upsides in both Q1 FY26 results and the Q2 FY26 guidance.
Turning to Q1 FY26 expectations, Chatterjee expects Apple’s iPhone revenues to surpass the Street’s consensus and the forecasted 16% iPhone revenue growth, positioning the company to deliver its highest-ever iPhone revenue growth since September 2021. Meanwhile, the analyst expects Q1 FY26 App Store revenue growth of about 7%, softer than the total Services growth guidance of about 14%. That said, he believes Apple has many “levers” across other services to drive strong Services growth beyond the App Store. Also, Chatterjee expects limited margin pressures from higher memory costs, as Apple has long-term supply and pricing contracts with suppliers. He added that AAPL’s huge scale ensures “favorable component cost outcomes relative to IT Hardware peers.”
Jefferies Remains on the Sidelines on AAPL Stock
Meanwhile, Jefferies analyst Edison Lee lowered his price target for Apple stock to $276.47 from $283.36 and reiterated a Hold rating. Lee noted that AAPL stock has pulled back 13% from its peak on December 2, 2025, driven by signals of a slowdown in Service revenue. The 5-star analyst highlighted that Sensor Tower data shows App Store revenue increased by only 7% in Q1 FY26, the slowest in the last seven quarters.
Lee also sees the risk of deceleration in the company’s Google (GOOGL)-related ad revenue to high single digits. Consequently, the analyst maintained his hardware forecasts but lowered the Services revenue growth estimate. While Lee still expects Apple to deliver a slight beat in Q1 FY26 results, his full-year FY26 and FY27 estimates are currently in line with the Street’s expectations. At 2.4x PEG (price/earnings-to-growth), Lee expects AAPL stock to be range-bound.
AI Analyst Is Bullish on AAPL Stock
TipRanks’ AI Analyst has an Outperform rating on Apple stock, with a price target of $301 indicating an upside potential of about 18%. The AI Analyst’s bullish stance is based on Apple’s solid financials and strong outlook. However, the AI Analyst cautioned about weak near-term technical momentum and the stock’s valuation.
Is Apple Stock a Buy or Sell?
Currently, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Apple stock based on 19 Buys, 11 Holds, and two Sell recommendations. The average AAPL stock price target of $298.84 indicates 17% upside potential.
