For the first time in 14 years, tech giant Apple (AAPL) is expected to ship more smartphones than Samsung (SSNLF) in 2025, according to a report from Counterpoint Research. More precisely, Apple is on track to deliver about 243 million iPhones this year, compared to 235 million units from Samsung. This means that Apple is projected to hold a 19.4% market share versus Samsung’s 18.7%. While shipment figures don’t represent direct sales, they do reflect how many phones companies expect to sell and are a good indicator of market demand.
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Apple’s growth has been largely driven by strong demand for its new iPhone 17 series, which launched in September. Counterpoint highlighted the series’ success during the holiday season, with U.S. sales in the first four weeks up 12% compared to the iPhone 16 series (excluding the 16e). In China, a key market, iPhone 17 sales during the same period were 18% higher than its predecessor. The surge is partly due to many consumers now upgrading the phones they bought during the COVID-19 era, which was a peak in smartphone purchases.
Looking ahead, Apple is positioned to stay ahead of Samsung through at least 2029. One reason is the resale market. In fact, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and mid-2025, and many of those buyers may eventually upgrade to new devices. Apple has also benefited from favorable conditions, such as a trade truce between the U.S. and China, a weaker dollar, and a stable global economy, all of which support its supply chain and international growth.
Is Apple a Buy or Sell Right Now?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on AAPL stock based on 21 Buys, 12 Holds, and two Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average AAPL price target of $289.17 per share implies 3.5% upside potential.
