XRP (XRP-USD) opened September at $2.77 and has since fallen about 14% over the past two weeks. Analysts now say the $2.75 range is the line to watch. This level marks the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern, and holding it could ignite a breakout toward $3.62, roughly 30% higher from current levels.
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The Glassnode distribution heatmap shows nearly 1.58 billion XRP was bought around $2.75, making it a major demand cluster. But resistance looms at $2.81, where the 100-day simple moving average sits. That supply zone could stall any quick rebound.
“If XRP holds above $2.72–$2.75, upside potential remains in play,” analyst Hardy wrote on X. Fellow analyst XForceGlobal added that extended consolidation near this level strengthens the case for a larger breakout, noting that “$20–$30 targets remain in play.”
There Is Trouble Below $2.75
If XRP slips under $2.75, the symmetrical triangle flips bearish, with a downside target of $2.00. Fibonacci analysis also shows a potential retest of $2.50 before bulls can regroup.
The short-term outlook rests on whether buyers can absorb pressure around $2.75 and force a close above $2.81. Without that, the rally stalls.
October Usually Demonstrates Seasonal Weakness
History is not on XRP’s side. Since 2013, October has delivered negative returns in seven of the past 12 years, with average monthly losses of about −4.6%.
Still, November and December tend to flip the script. XRP has averaged 51% gains in Q4, including a 240% rally last year. Even during bear cycles like 2018 and 2022, the final quarter produced major swings. This raises hopes that history could repeat and a mid-October bounce could mark the start of another “Uptober.”
ETF Deadlines Could Decide the Move
Analysts point to upcoming ETF deadlines as the wild card for October. Grayscale’s application decision lands Oct. 18, with several more deadlines between Oct. 19–25. Franklin Templeton’s filing has been pushed to Nov. 14, while REX/Osprey’s XRP ETF (XRPR) debuted in September with $38 million in first-day trading.
Streamlined SEC approvals and post-lawsuit clarity have analysts predicting 100% approval odds by year-end, with potential inflows of $4–$8 billion in 2026. But traders also warn of a possible “sell the news” reaction if approvals are already priced in.
Key Takeaway
XRP’s October will hinge on the $2.75 support level. Hold it, and a run to $3.62 and beyond becomes possible, especially with ETF catalysts ahead. Lose it, and the bearish case for $2.50 or even $2.00 opens up.
At the time of writing, XRP is sitting at $2.8693.
