XRP (XRP-USD) has surged more than 550% since November, recently trading above $3.19. Technical analyst Gert van Lagen believes this rally could be the start of something much bigger. He points to XRP’s breakout from a seven-year double-bottom pattern as a sign that the token could climb toward $34 by mid-2026.
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The move above $1.80, the pattern’s neckline, was followed by a retest that held as support. In chart terms, this kind of pullback often confirms the breakout’s strength and signals that buyers are committed. Van Lagen says the current setup mirrors XRP’s massive 2014–2017 rally, when a similar base led to gains exceeding 100,000%.
ETF Hopes Add Fuel to the Bull Case
XRP’s history shows it can deliver extreme percentage gains during bullish market cycles. The token soared roughly 1,625% in the 2020–2021 rally and more than 1,000% from its 2022 lows to this year’s highs. Bulls now believe a spot XRP ETF, which some put at a 95% approval probability, could trigger another explosive run.
Forecasts suggest ETF-driven demand could lift prices toward $27, putting Van Lagen’s $34 target within reach. Combined with the technical breakout, ETF speculation has given traders fresh reasons to bet on XRP continuing its climb in the months ahead.
XRP’s On-Chain Data Shows a Big Disconnect
Despite the bullish chart setup, XRP’s fundamentals tell a different story. Data from DefiLlama shows the XRP Ledger’s $190 billion market cap is roughly 2,200 times greater than its $85 million total value locked. By comparison, Ethereum’s ratio is just 5.6. That kind of disparity suggests XRP may be priced far above what its on-chain activity supports.
This disconnect has fueled concerns among some analysts that the rally could be running ahead of real-world adoption. Without meaningful growth in network use, the risk is that price momentum could stall — leaving late buyers exposed if sentiment turns.
High Profits Could Trigger Selling Pressure
Another warning sign comes from Glassnode’s supply-in-profit data. More than 95% of all XRP in circulation is currently in profit, a level that has historically led to sharp reversals. In both the 2020–2021 and 2022–2025 rallies, similar readings preceded heavy profit-taking.
If history repeats, large holders could start locking in gains, creating a surge of selling pressure. That could make it harder for XRP to hold its current levels, let alone push toward $30 or higher. For some traders, the bullish projections might start to feel too good to be true if the selling begins before the rally’s full potential is realized.
At the time of writing, XRP is sitting at $3.1956.
