Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) protestors are planning for a weekend of disruption with a “TeslaTakedown” day of action slated for Saturday. This is a movement that has sprung up in recent months in response to CEO Elon Musk spearheading the Trump administration’s controversial DOGE initiative.
Once that happening is out of the way, next week could offer further commotion in the Teslaverse. The EV leader will announce its delivery figures for Q1, and considering the data available so far from various sources, it’s going to be a disappointing affair. That is certainly the opinion of Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives, who is expecting a “very soft rip the band-aid off 1Q delivery number.”
Ives expects deliveries will land in the 355,000 to 360,000 range, representing a ~7%+ year-over-year drop. To provide some context, at the beginning of the quarter, initial Street estimates had 400,000 deliveries but these have significantly decreased as the global data has come in.
Ives thinks a big portion of this weakness is down to customers delaying purchases in anticipation of the Model Y refresh and the launch of a lower-cost new model expected by summer. However, the ongoing anti-Musk sentiment and brand-related issues are also clearly influencing the weak delivery numbers.
“We estimate 30% of the very soft 1Q delivery number is related to Musk/ brand/DOGE while 70% is more timing and non-brand headwind issues,” Ives elaborated in the matter.
That said, the analyst believes that Q1 will mark “the low point,” and thinks the Street is beginning to look past the numbers in anticipation of a “much stronger” second half of the year, with model refreshes on the way.
As Ives has pointed out before, he thinks Musk needs to find a “better balance” between being the CEO of Tesla and managing DOGE, as both investors and employees are eager for his leadership at this critical moment for Tesla. In this regard, Ives thinks Musk took a “big step forward” last week by holding an all-hands meeting for employees and investors. As a result, the stock has recovered somewhat, and the Street is “starting to sense a potential turning point in this latest Tesla chapter.”
“This continues to be a moment of truth for Musk to navigate this brand tornado crisis moment and get onto the other side of this dark chapter for Tesla with much better days ahead we see for the story,” Ives summed up.
Bottom line, Ives remains a fully-fledged TSLA bull, maintaining an Outperform (i.e., Buy) rating on the shares along with a Street-high $550 price target. Should the figure be met, investors will be pocketing gains of ~109% by this time next year. (To watch Ives’ track record, click here)
Ives is optimistic but most on the Street aren’t quite as confident. The stock only claims a Hold consensus rating, based on a mix of 14 Buys, 11 Holds and 12 Sells. At $325.66, the average price target factors in a 12-month gain of ~24%. (See TSLA stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.