“What’s Next after a Q3 Beat?” Barclays Weighs In on Tesla Stock (TSLA)

Tesla (TSLA) is on track to report stronger-than-expected vehicle deliveries in the third quarter. The upside is being driven by strong U.S. sales, with buyers rushing to take advantage of the federal EV tax credit before it expires in September 2025. But Barclays analyst Dan Levy warns that the strength may prove temporary, as demand could weaken sharply once the EV credit lapses. As a result, Levy reiterated an Equalweight rating on Tesla with a $275 price target, implying a 30.6% downside potential.

Levy Sees Q3 Beat but Warns on Future Demand

Levy expects Tesla to deliver about 465,000 vehicles in Q3, based on sales data from July, August, and early September. That’s well ahead of the 430,000-unit consensus and above his own forecast after Q2 in July. He also sees Tesla reducing inventory by roughly 20,000 vehicles, which would bring stock levels down to around 110,000–120,000 units. Levy said stronger U.S. sales have supported the near-term numbers, but he noted that investors may have already priced in much of this strength.

Despite the solid Q3 outlook, Levy warned that demand could drop once the EV tax credit expires. He expects Tesla’s U.S. volumes to take a significant hit in the fourth quarter, making it harder for the company to sustain delivery momentum.

Looking further ahead, Levy highlighted that Tesla’s story is no longer defined only by quarterly delivery counts. Investors are increasingly focused on the company’s push into autonomy and robotaxis. He pointed to Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, which links compensation to progress in self-driving, showing how important this area has become for Tesla.

Is TSLA Stock a Buy? 

Turning to Wall Street, TSLA stock has a Hold consensus rating based on 14 Buys, 13 Holds, and seven Sells assigned in the last three months. At $313.62, the average Tesla price target implies a 20.79% downside potential.