Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba (BABA) is set to announce its Q4 FY25 earnings results on May 15. The stock has jumped over 56% year-to-date, backed by a rebound in core e-commerce sales, solid financial results, and rising investor faith in its AI and cloud businesses. Wall Street analysts expect the company to report earnings of $1.73 per share, representing a 23% increase year-over-year. Meanwhile, revenues are expected to grow by 7% from the year-ago quarter to $33.11 billion. Notably, Alibaba missed EPS estimates only twice out of the last nine quarters.
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According to Main Street Data, Alibaba’s Cloud segment generated $4.38 billion of revenues in the fiscal third quarter of 2025, up 13% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for AI-related products.
Recent Events
Ahead of its Q4 earnings release, Alibaba held its annual AliDay event, where Chairman Joe Tsai laid out the company’s strategic direction. He stressed that artificial intelligence (AI) will be central to operations over the next three to five years, highlighting “Cloud + AI” and e-commerce as Alibaba’s two core growth engines.
At the same time, Alibaba is also stepping up its push into fast deliveries. It recently updated Taobao to include more options from its food app Ele.me. Now, users can order meals, coffee, pet supplies, and clothes, all delivered in under an hour.
Analysts’ Views on BABA Ahead of Q4 Results
Yesterday, Citi analyst Alicia Yap maintained a Buy rating on BABA stock with a price target of $169 per share. Yap remains optimistic about Alibaba following Chairman Joe Tsai’s comments at the AliDay event, where she emphasized that AI will drive operations across the company over the next three to five years. Alongside its strategic focus on e-commerce and Cloud + AI, Alibaba aims to weave AI into every business segment.
The analyst notes that AI has the potential not just to improve functions like search and recommendations but also to open new user access points across platforms. In addition, she believes that several innovative businesses within Alibaba, such as Xianyu, Quark, Amap, DingTalk, and 1688, could experience new growth opportunities through the integration of AI. Looking ahead to Alibaba’s upcoming quarterly report on May 15, Citi will be watching core commerce and cloud revenue trends, total EBITA margins, capital spending, and shareholder returns.
Also, Barclays five-star analyst Jiong Shao recently reiterated an Overweight rating on Alibaba’s stock with a price target of $180 per share. He noted that cloud revenue accelerated in the March quarter and is expected to remain robust for the rest of the year.
Options Traders Anticipate a 6.6% Move
Using TipRanks’ Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings move is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don’t worry, the Options tool does this for you.
Indeed, it currently says that options traders are expecting a 6.6% move in either direction.
Is BABA Stock a Good Buy Right Now?
Analysts remain highly bullish about Alibaba’s stock trajectory. With 16 unanimous Buy ratings, BABA stock commands a Strong Buy consensus rating on TipRanks. Also, the average Alibaba price target of $167.13 implies 26.09% upside potential from current levels.
