Shares in major airlines failed to take off today despite industry trade body IATA forecasting record profits in 2026. However, IATA said these figures would be even more impressive if airlines were treated in the same manner as tech titans like Apple (AAPL) when it came to extra costs and taxation.
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United Airlines (UAL) was flat in pre-market trading, Delta Air Lines (DAL) was up 0.3% and American Airlines (AAL) was down 0.3%.
Best Ever Figures
IATA predicted that the total net profit of global airlines will reach a best-ever $41 billion next year, up from $39.5 billion in 2025, with revenue expected to grow by 4.5% to $1.053 trillion.
Passenger numbers are expected to reach 5.2 billion in 2026, up 4.4% on 2025. Cargo volumes are expected to reach 71.6 million tonnes in 2026, up 2.4% on 2025.
It said macro-economic factors impacting airlines are mixed for 2026. On the positive side, GDP growth is expected to be largely stable at 3.1% and inflation is expected to ease slightly to 3.7%. World trade growth is, however, expected to be anemic at 0.5%.
Cargo revenue is forecast to reach $158 billion in 2026, up 2.1% driven by continued growth in time-sensitive shipments and e-commerce volumes.
“Airlines have successfully built shock-absorbing resilience into their businesses that is delivering stable profitability,” said International Air Transport Association director general Willie Walsh.
Industry Facing Headwinds
The growth will come despite ongoing supply chain issues leading to slower aircraft deliveries and a delay in rolling out more fuel-efficient jets. The world’s leading jetmakers Airbus (EADSF) and Boeing (BA) have both faced delivery delays to their airline clients in recent years.
It is partly why the industry’s net profit margin is expected to be unchanged from 2025 at 3.9% next year. Net profit per passenger transported is expected to be $7.90 below the 2023 high of $8.50, and unchanged from 2025. Return on invested capital (ROIC) is expected to be 6.8%, unchanged from 2025.
“Industry-level margins are still a pittance considering the value that airlines create by connecting people and economies,” said Walsh. “Yet Apple will earn more selling an iPhone cover than the $7.90 airlines will make transporting the average passenger. Imagine the additional power that airlines could bring to economies if we reduce regulatory and tax burdens, and alleviate infrastructure inefficiencies.”
It would also be an extra boost to airline share prices which have been volatile this year – see above.
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