Airbnb (ABNB) says booking growth is cooling. But don’t panic yet. Rich travelers are still spending, and Americans haven’t cancelled their vacations—they’re just hesitating.
Airbnb’s Q1 Beats Expectations but Guidance Disappoints
Airbnb stock slipped 1.7% Friday after the company flagged a potential slowdown in travel demand. This came despite beating Wall Street estimates for both revenue and earnings in the first quarter. The problem? Second-quarter revenue guidance didn’t impress.
Airbnb reported an 8% jump in nights and experiences booked, hitting 143 million globally. But the company warned that growth would likely ease up in the coming months, especially in the U.S.
High-Income Travelers Keep Spending Freely
Chief Financial Officer Ellie Mertz told investors that demand now depends heavily on the traveler’s income bracket and trip timing. “We are seeing the higher-income traveler somewhat unimpacted by the current macro conditions,” Mertz said on the earnings call.
Expensive listings are still doing well. So are last-minute trips. But bookings planned a month or more in advance are slower. “We do have some U.S. consumers that are waiting and seeing before they book their summer travel,” Mertz added.
Still, that’s not mass panic. Travelers aren’t cutting trips short or trading down to cheaper places either.
Foreign Tourists Are Skipping the U.S.
One issue Airbnb flagged is the drop-off in foreign travelers heading to the U.S. According to Mertz, “It’s less popular to come to the U.S. from a year ago, also relative to the beginning of the year.”
She cited a clear pullback from Canadian travelers—but emphasized they’re not staying home. They’re just going elsewhere: places like Mexico, Brazil, France, and Japan.
Luckily for Airbnb, overseas visitors only make up 2% to 3% of its business.
Is Airbnb Stock a Good Buy?
Despite the booking slowdown, Wall Street hasn’t lost faith in Airbnb just yet. According to TipRanks, the stock holds a Moderate Buy consensus based on 37 analyst ratings in the past three months. Out of those, 14 analysts say Buy, 19 are sitting on Hold, and just 4 are calling for a Sell.
The average 12-month ABNB price target is $148.48. That’s an 18.54% jump from the current share price of $125.26. The most bullish target sits at $200, while the lowest forecast sees the stock falling to $100.
In short, analysts aren’t rushing to the exits. But they’re not loading up on the stock either. It reflects the uncertainty in the travel sector right now—especially for U.S.-focused names like Airbnb. The company is still profitable. Demand isn’t falling off a cliff. But growth is clearly cooling, and analysts want to see how summer bookings shake out before leaning in further.
