AI Analyst Flags Key Risks and Upside for Nvidia Ahead of Earnings

Nvidia (NVDA) is heading into its Q1 2026 earnings scheduled later today with major momentum, a wave of new projects, and a few global challenges. But is the stock still a buy after such a massive run? According to ‘Spark,’ TipRanks’ AI analyst, the answer is yes, though with a bit of caution.

‘Spark’ Weighs In on Nvidia

‘Spark’, our AI analyst, gives Nvidia a stock score of 80 and an “Outperform” rating, pointing to strong fundamentals and future growth drivers. The company’s financials remain exceptional. Revenue in fiscal 2025 surged 114% to $130.5 billion, while earnings per share grew 146%. Free cash flow more than doubled, and return on equity stands at an impressive 91.8%. The key engine remains Nvidia’s data center business, which generated $115.2 billion in revenue last year—nearly triple the previous year—thanks largely to the Blackwell GPU architecture.

The short-term outlook is also strong. Nvidia expects $43 billion in revenue for the current quarter. But ‘Spark’ warns that valuation is a concern. With a P/E ratio of 44.7 and rising expectations baked into the price, any earnings miss or guidance downgrade could hit the stock hard.

NVDA Expands Its Reach

Beyond the numbers, Nvidia continues to build the world’s AI infrastructure. In Europe, it’s working with AstraZeneca (AZN), Ericsson (ERIC), Saab (SAABF), and SEB to launch Sweden’s largest enterprise AI supercomputer. This project, backed by the powerful Wallenberg family, includes Nvidia’s first AI technology center in the country. It’s a strategic move to embed Nvidia into Europe’s industrial base and reduce its dependence on China.

Speaking of China, Nvidia is adjusting to U.S. export restrictions that ban the sale of its H20 chips. This resulted in a $5.5 billion inventory write-down. Still, Nvidia is now offering a new lower-spec chip—the RTX Pro 6000D—aimed at staying relevant in China’s $50 billion data center market. However, its market share in China has dropped from 95% to 50%, and local rival Huawei is gaining ground.

_{Operating Income Rises Sharply, Driven by Growth in Compute and Networking Segment. Source: Main Street Data}

Looking further ahead, Nvidia is quietly laying the groundwork in quantum computing. It’s backing PsiQuantum, a photonics startup, and promoting CUDA-Q, its hybrid quantum-classical software platform. The goal is not to build quantum machines, but to ensure Nvidia powers whatever platform emerges.

For investors, the takeaway is straightforward: Nvidia continues to dominate in AI while laying the groundwork for quantum. The risks are real, but according to ‘Spark,’ so is the upside.

Is NVDA stock a Good Buy?

According to The Street’s analysts, Nvidia has a Strong Buy rating and an average NVDA stock price target of $164.21. This implies a 21.19% upside.

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