Nebius Group (NBIS), an AI infrastructure and cloud services company, has been one of the most talked-about stocks in 2025. The company’s shares have soared roughly 216% year-to-date, making it a headline winner in the tech and AI infrastructure space.
Claim 70% Off TipRanks This Holiday Season
- Unlock hedge fund-level data and powerful investing tools for smarter, sharper decisions
- Stay ahead of the market with the latest news and analysis and maximize your portfolio's potential
But with the year ending, investors are asking a key question: Can Nebius keep up this pace in 2026? Let’s break down what has driven the stock so far, and what may influence the stock next year.
What Has Driven Nebius Stock’s Big Rally?
Two main reasons explain Nebius’s huge 2025 gains:
1. Explosive Demand for AI Infrastructure: Nebius builds full-stack cloud and AI compute systems that help developers train and run large AI models. Demand for this kind of infrastructure has surged in 2025, as more firms rush to add AI capacity. That demand is now clearly showing up in Nebius’s numbers.
In the third quarter of 2025, the company reported a 355% jump in revenue, a sharp acceleration that caught the market’s attention. Management said growth was driven by rising usage from existing customers, along with new contracts tied to AI training and inference workloads. At the same time, Nebius is expanding data-center capacity to meet demand, which supports growth but adds to costs in 2026.
2. Strategic Deals Strengthen Nebius’s Growth Story: The surge in Nebius Group shares has also been supported by major customer wins that strengthen its growth story. Earlier in 2025, the company announced multi-billion-dollar deals with Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META), highlighting strong demand for its high-performance AI computing services.
More recently, the company said demand from large customers is rising, helped by new AI training work. It also noted a stronger deal pipeline and higher use from current clients, pointing to more stable growth into 2026.
What’s Happening Now with the Stock
As of late December 2025, the stock has softened from its highs and recently traded around $87–$90, down about 3–4% on the day in some sessions. This pullback partly reflects broader market weakness in tech, and also shows how volatile the stock has become after its big run.
Investors are closely watching Nebius’s AI platform launches and strong revenue growth. At the same time, concerns remain around earnings swings and stock volatility.
Key Factors to Watch in 2026
1. Continued Growth vs. Rising Costs: The company is investing heavily to expand its data-center footprint as demand for AI computing power rises. Management raised its 2025 capital expenditure guidance from about $2 billion to around $5 billion to secure GPUs, land, and power capacity needed to support future contracts.
The higher spending supports growth, but it also increases cost pressure. If Nebius can keep revenue growth strong and eventually improve profitability, the investment could pay off. If costs rise faster than sales, investors may question how much further the stock can rise after its big 2025 gains.
2. Competition Remains Intense: Being focused on AI infrastructure has helped Nebius Group stand out, but competition remains intense. Large cloud providers with deep resources continue to invest heavily in their own AI platforms, which keeps pressure on smaller, specialist players.
Partnerships therefore matter. Deals with Microsoft and reported work with Meta have helped support Nebius’s growth so far. If the company can secure more large contracts in 2026, it would strengthen its position and help support further gains in the stock.
Is NBIS a Good Stock to Buy?
According to the Street’s analysts, Nebius stock sports a Strong Buy consensus based on five Buys assigned in the last three months. At the same time, the average NBIS stock price target of $164.20. This implies about 87% upside from the current price.
Bottom Line
Nebius has delivered a standout run in 2025, backed by strong AI demand, rapid revenue growth, and high-profile customer wins. But with the stock already up sharply, rising costs and tough competition will matter more in 2026. Investors should weigh both the growth potential and the risks before taking a position.