Affirm Rockets after Earnings as Guidance “Will Do Better” Fuels Bulls

Affirm just posted its strongest quarter yet, sending shares up double digits as Wall Street bets the buy-now-pay-later firm can keep growing even without Walmart.

Affirm’s (AFRM) Fiscal fourth quarter landed well ahead of Wall Street. The Buy Now Pay Later company’s revenue rose 33% to $876 million versus the $837 million analysts expected. The company posted a profit of 20 cents a share after a loss of 14 cents a year ago. This shift to the black mattered because it showed operating leverage kicking in as volumes scale.

Gross merchandise volume hit $10.4 billion, up 43% year over year and higher than the prior quarter’s $8.6 billion. “It’s actually our largest GMV quarter ever, which is unusual for our fourth quarter,” Chief Operating Officer Michael Linford said. He added that it was also the first quarter of operating income profitability as a public company, calling it “a really big deal for us.”

Management Sets a “Floor” and Tells the Street to Expect More

Affirm guided to at least $46 billion in GMV for Fiscal 2026 and revenue of $855 million to $885 million for the current quarter. Linford framed that outlook plainly. The company sets a “floor,” and expects to perform better from there. “We’re very intentional with the numbers we put out there—we will do better than that number,” he said. He also reminded investors that Affirm takes guidance seriously, which is why the bar starts conservative.

That message hit at the right time. Earlier this year, softer guidance spooked the market. Today’s tone reset that narrative. The combination of a revenue beat, a clean profit print, and a confident guide helped flip sentiment and lifted the stock in late trading.

Investors Cheer the Print and Analysts Lean In

Shares jumped 13% to $90.72 after the report. This pop stands out because recent fintech reports sometimes met estimates yet failed to move stocks. Here the market focused on the profit turn, the GMV strength, and the path to do more.

Jefferies kept a Buy rating and a $95 price target. The firm called it another strong quarter and said guidance “likely satisfies the bulls.” They highlighted that credit and margins were “stable, if not positive.” More zero percent APR products drew higher FICO borrowers, which helped credit metrics. Active users and merchants also accelerated, reinforcing the idea that growth is broad based rather than narrow.

Affirm Works around Walmart and Keeps the Channel Open

The Walmart (WMT) breakup in March was expected to be a headline risk. Management had told investors that Walmart was about 5 percent of GMV and 2 percent of adjusted operating income. Linford said the roll off happens in the second quarter and that Klarna will replace the direct integration. He also made clear that the relationship is not over. “We have a business serving consumers directly, and that can go to merchants we’re no longer directly integrated with,” he said. “We anticipate being able to offset a substantial portion of the headwind associated with the loss of that direct integration with our direct-to-consumer business.”

This distinction is important because direct integration is one channel and direct to consumer is another. By keeping both routes active, Affirm gives itself more ways to protect volumes even if a major integration changes hands.

Credit Holds Steady while Merchants Lean on BNPL

Macro uncertainty has been the cloud over buy now pay later. Linford’s read was measured. Tariffs were “nothing to sweat over,” and the company sees the pressure more on merchants than on Affirm. “The bottom line is, the impact is going to be on the merchants, and we help merchants sell inventory,” he said. When inventories pile up, flexible checkout becomes a tool to move product. This is where BNPL tends to earn its keep.

Jefferies echoed that view by pointing to stable credit characteristics and better mix. If loss rates remain contained while volumes rise, operating leverage can keep showing up in the numbers. That is the formula that turned a loss into a profit this quarter.

What to Watch Next

First, track GMV against the “at least $46 billion” full year view. Second, watch the credit mix as zero percent products grow. Third, monitor the Walmart transition and how much the direct to consumer channel offsets any lost integration flow. If those pieces hold, the path that management laid out today gives the stock room to keep working.

Is AFRM Stock a Good Buy?

Affirm carries a Moderate Buy rating from Wall Street. Of the 18 analysts who issued views in the past three months, 12 rate the stock a Buy, six rate it a Hold, and none recommend a Sell. The average 12-month AFRM price target is $80.13, just above the recent close of $79.99.

See more AFRM analyst ratings