A huge global wheat crop is expected for the 2025-26 crop year, a development that is expected to push prices lower for the food staple.
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Lower wheat prices are helping to pressure the stocks of leading agriculture companies such as Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Nutrien (CA:NTR), and Deere & Co. (DE). Preliminary estimates forecast that the global wheat stock will reach 271 million tonnes at the end of the current 2025-26 crop year, up 3% from 264 million tonnes the previous year.
Increased output from Russia is expected to boost the global crop, with production estimated at 83 to 85 million tonnes. At the same time, wheat production in the European Union (EU) is forecast at more than 138 million tonnes, compared to 122 million tonnes in 2024-25. The European Commission is forecasting that EU wheat yields will be 6% above the five-year average.
Strong Demand
At the same time, Canada’s production of spring wheat is also anticipated to jump by millions of tonnes this year after the country’s Prairie region received some much-needed rainfall this spring. Wheat demand remains strong, especially for high-protein, high-quality wheat. However, the bumper crop around the world this year could lead to lower prices, say commodities analysts.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly crop report, the winter wheat harvest advanced 19% over the past week, after rising 10% the previous week. So far in 2025, global wheat prices have fallen 13% and are now trading just below $5.30 per bushel amid expectations of ample global supplies.
Is ADM Stock a Buy?
The stock of Archer-Daniels-Midland has a consensus Hold rating among six Wall Street analysts. That rating is based on one Buy, three Hold, and two Sell recommendations issued in the last three months. The average ADM price target of $48.67 implies 7.79% downside from current levels.
