Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP) shares have regained momentum over the past year, rebounding after a challenging post-pandemic reset in the e-commerce sector. The stock is up 52% over the past 12 months, supported by improving sentiment around online retail, digital payments, and the company’s expanding use of AI-driven commerce tools. Merchant activity has remained resilient, and consumer spending trends have held steady.
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What’s driving the renewed interest isn’t just a recovery in e-commerce demand. Investors are increasingly focused on how technology is changing the buying process itself. AI-powered assistants, automated product discovery, and faster, more personalized checkout experiences are beginning to reshape how consumers shop online. Rather than browsing endlessly, shoppers may soon rely on intelligent agents to guide decisions and even complete purchases on their behalf, a shift that could redefine digital commerce.
That broader theme is central to a recent bullish call from Scotiabank analyst Kevin Krishnaratne, who upgraded Shopify Outperform (i.e., Buy) and raised his price target to $200. (To watch Krishnaratne’s track record, click here)
In Krishnaratne’s view, Shopify is well positioned to benefit from the rise of what he calls “agentic commerce,” or A-Commerce. The analyst describes A-Commerce as a new layer of retail, where AI agents actively assist consumers throughout the shopping journey. In his words, “Agentic Commerce has arrived, and Shopify is ready to capitalize on an opportunity that has the potential to reshape the retail industry, similar to how e-commerce fundamentally changed the structure of traditional commerce.” Importantly, the analyst does not see this as simply shifting sales from one channel to another. Instead, he argues that A-Commerce could expand overall retail spending, much like the original transition from physical stores to online platforms.
From a numbers perspective, Krishnaratne outlines scenarios in which Shopify’s gross merchandise value could grow meaningfully faster than current expectations. In one case, the analyst sees GMV growth running about 300 basis points above consensus forecasts for 2026, with upside if adoption of agentic commerce accelerates. While he acknowledges outcomes will likely land somewhere between conservative and aggressive assumptions, the message is that Shopify’s scale, merchant ecosystem, and improving operating leverage give it a strong advantage.
What does the rest of the Street think? Looking at the consensus breakdown, opinions from other analysts are more spread out. 18 Buys and 13 Holds add up to a Moderate Buy consensus. In addition, the $180.62 average price target indicates ~16% upside potential. (See SHOP stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.