Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) shares have climbed about 22% this month, a trend that has become a regular occurrence of late. Since bottoming out in early August, the stock is up 67.5%.
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According to Truist analyst Srikripa Devarakonda, there’s still some room left to run. Along with reiterating a Buy rating, Devarakonda has just raised her price target from $1,038 to $1,182, implying that shares will post additional gains of 13% in the months ahead. (To watch Devarakonda’s track record, click here)
The price target increase comes in the wake of a recently announced White House deal that is designed to expand access to obesity drugs for Medicare patients. Devarakonda now believes that favorable pricing and access to Medicare are setting up Lilly to deliver higher revenue than she had previously modeled.
Going forward, Devarakonda now estimates peak incretin revenue (Zepbound, Mounjaro, and orforglipron) could reach $101 billion, up from $85 billion previously. The increase mainly reflects higher projected orforglipron sales, with the analyst anticipating worldwide peak revenue of $41 billion instead of $22 billion, because Devarakonda is now factoring in stronger global adoption driven by “favorable pricing.” Devarakonda assumes an ex-US blended net price of $200 per month for orforglipron, which she thinks will draw a large customer base.
“We note that the obesity market is highly elastic with higher volumes of patients tending to stay on the drug for longer periods of time given lower price points,” Devarakonda went on to explain. The analyst also thinks this pricing makes orforglipron more competitive against compounders that might otherwise chip away market share.
In the U.S., Devarakonda believes Lilly has obtained a PRV (priority review voucher) for orforglipron, which could enable reimbursement in the first half of next year. The approval of an oral pill should result in “rapid uptake and significant expansion.”
Devarakonda now models worldwide peak obesity-drug revenue of ~$64 billion, compared with the Street’s ~$53 billion estimate, based on 27 million patients using an obesity medication and Lilly holding a 65% share, or 17.6 million patients worldwide taking Zepbound, Mounjaro, or orforglipron.
For 2026, the analyst is calling for total revenue of $82.5 billion vs. the Street’s $75.8 billion forecast. For worldwide obesity treatments – Zepbound, Mounjaro, and orforglipron – Devarakonda forecasts $25.7 billion in 2026, though this is actually lower than the Street’s $30.8 billion estimate.
Most other analysts remain in LLY’s corner too; based on a mix of 18 Buys vs. 2 Holds, the consensus view is that this stock is a Strong Buy. However, going by the $1,042.89 average target, the shares will stay rangebound for the time being. It will be interesting to see if other analysts raise their price targets – or downgrade their ratings – shortly. (See LLY stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.