Though early 2025 did not go well for Canadian gold miner Barrick Gold (TSE:ABX), a corner may have been turned. In fact, Barrick Gold is now making a push for 30% higher productivity by 2030. This was welcome news for shareholders, who notched shares up fractionally in response in Monday morning’s trading.
Barrick Gold chairman John Thornton revealed that Barrick Gold had a very solid year, despite what some called a “challenging operating environment.” It met goals for both gold and copper production, and kept up its reserve replacement rate. It also expanded its available mining properties, which is a surprise given what happened in Mali. But more about that in a minute.
At any rate, Thornton rolled out a big new plan for the next five years: multiple growth projects designed to ultimately fuel a 30% jump in “gold equivalent ounces” produced by the end of 2030. While gold prices are on the rise, Thornton pointed out, gold mining stocks have faltered. But Barrick Gold still managed to land a 69% jump in net earnings, which is the best surge that Barrick has seen in the last 10 years.
Mali Resolved?
We followed, fairly closely, the events leading up to and around the closure of the Loulo-Gounkoto mine in Mali, which Barrick Gold was operating. The Malian government was looking for a bigger cut, and as such, basically made Barrick Gold’s position therein untenable. But Barrick was always looking for a way to get back in; you cannot make a 30% increase in production without mines, after all. And, not so long ago, a deal seems to have been reached.
Barrick offered up a payment of $438 million, which was significantly less than the $500 million in back taxes that Mali was demanding. It was also vastly less than the $5.5 billion Mali later expanded it to. Further, the Malian government will, reportedly, give back the gold initially seized from Barrick Gold in the days leading up to the Loulo-Gounkoto mine’s closure.
Is Barrick Gold a Buy or Sell?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Strong Buy consensus rating on TSE:ABX stock based on 10 Buys and two Holds assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. After a 6.02% rally in its share price over the past year, the average TSE:ABX price target of C$33.26 per share implies 32.33% upside potential.
