3 Economic Events That Could Affect Your Portfolio This Week, June 23-27, 2025

Stocks closed mixed on Friday amid hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East, still clocking in a second straight week in the red. Despite eking out a small increase on the last trading day of the holiday-shortened week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ended the weekly session down 1.77%, returning to a year-to-date loss. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (SPX) fell 1.28%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 (NDX) lost 1.31% for the week, with both benchmarks still in the green for the year.     

Stock markets were moved by geopolitical news during the week, with the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting adding a significant macro highlight. The week opened positively as fears of all-out Mideast war eased, after which the rally crumbled – and crude resumed its climb – as Tehran threatened escalation and former President Donald Trump demanded “total surrender.”

After Thursday’s Juneteenth closure, investors returned on Friday hoping for the best – but stocks lost ground throughout the day on another bout of trade news. The declines were led by semiconductor and chip equipment stocks, which fell after The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. plans to cancel the blanket waivers that allow international chip companies like Samsung, SK Hynix , and TSMC to easily send American chipmaking equipment to their factories in China.

Wednesday’s Fed interest rate decision brought no surprises, as the central bank kept rates unchanged, noting that uncertainty “has diminished but remains elevated.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that “the economy is in a solid position,” and the Fed is well-positioned to provide a timely response to any economic developments.

The Fed’s “Dot Plot” also remained unchanged, as policymakers still expect two rate cuts this year. However, expectations for inflation and unemployment by the end of 2025 both rose, while projections for GDP growth declined, underscoring the Fed’s difficulties in establishing monetary policy amid contrasting economic crosscurrents and elevated geopolitical risks.

Meanwhile, economic data appear to be confirming the Fed’s view of a gradually softening economy. Retail sales fell for a second straight month in May, declining by the most so far in 2025 and marking the first back-to-back monthly decline since the end of 2023. Industrial production declined again, and the NAHB homebuilder confidence index slumped to its lowest since the end of 2022 – while new home construction dropped to the lowest level since 2020.

This and other data, coupled with the Fed’s updated economic projections, might keep “stagflation” in the headlines. Sunday’s news that the U.S. had struck Iran’s nuclear facilities set the stage for a further rise in oil prices, adding short-term inflationary pressures and weighing on investor risk appetite. Markets remain wedged between escalating global risk and weakening fundamentals – with Fed policy constrained, volatility high, and few near-term catalysts to shift sentiment decisively.

Three Economic Events

Here are three key economic events that could affect your portfolio this week. For a full listing of additional economic reports, check out the TipRanks Economic Calendar.

» June’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI (preliminary readings) – Monday, 06/23 – PMI indices are leading economic indicators used by economists and analysts to gain timely insights into changing economic conditions, as the direction and rate of change in the PMIs usually precede changes in the overall economy.

» May’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) – Friday, 06/27 – This report tracks changes in inflation based on consumer spending, excluding volatile items such as food and energy. The Federal Reserve considers the annualized Core PCE Price Index its preferred inflation gauge.

» June’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations (preliminary readings) – Friday, 06/27 – These reports summarize consumer confidence and long-term inflation expectations in the U.S. Consumer confidence impacts spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of U.S. GDP. The inflation expectations component is closely monitored by policymakers and is factored into the Federal Reserve’s Index of Inflation Expectations.

For more exclusive market insights and content from TipRanks Macro & Markets research analyst Yulia Vaiman, click here.