3 Economic Events That Could Affect Your Portfolio This Week, June 16-20, 2025

Stocks clocked in weekly losses as Middle East hostilities flared up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost 1.32% for the week, returning to negative territory year-to-date. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 finished down 0.39%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 (NDX) lost 0.60% for the week.    

The week unfolded positively through Thursday, with stocks lifted by better-than-expected economic data and a strong showing in tech shares. June’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed that households are feeling much less pessimistic about the inflation outlook, with the consumer sentiment index strongly rebounding in its first improvement in six months. Cooler-than-expected consumer and producer inflation reports lifted Fed cut expectations and investor spirits, as the data reflected no visible impact from tariffs on prices.

On the trade front, there were no major headlines, with gradual progress seen in U.S.-China trade discussions, and deals with India, Mexico, and Canada progressing in parallel. The “no scoop” atmosphere around tariff issues supported investor calm.

However, after stocks inched up near their record highs, a re-intensification of geopolitical risk – just as U.S.-China trade tensions subsided – pulled markets lower. Global stocks fell and oil prices surged on Friday, as Iran sent missiles into Israeli cities after Israeli airstrikes hit Iran’s nuclear and military facilities. Gold and the U.S. dollar rose as investors searched for safe havens.

The flare in Middle East tensions is a wild card for the Federal Reserve, which is having its rate policy meeting this week. After several months of oil price declines exerting a disinflationary effect on headline price indexes, this backdrop is about to change.

Iran produces about 3.3 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for roughly 3% of global output. A total production shutdown could push global oil prices above $100 per barrel, with worst-case scenarios seeing spikes up to $130 – especially if the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20% of global oil shipments, is disrupted. Although a strengthening USD can act as a partial counterweight, dampening inflation through lower import costs, the extent of its effects is limited.

The futures markets still foresee no change in Fed rates at the coming meeting, and the chances for a July cut have risen only marginally. However, the central bank’s path to interest rate cuts starting in September appears to have widened.

Three Economic Events

Here are three key economic events that could affect your portfolio this week. For a full listing of additional economic reports, check out the TipRanks Economic Calendar.

» May’s Retail Sales – Tuesday, 06/17 – This report indicates how much consumers are spending on durable and non-durable goods. Retail Sales is a leading indicator of economic health, offering insight into the current quarter’s economic growth and the inflationary pressures stemming from consumer demand.

» May’s Industrial Production – Tuesday, 06/17 – This report, released by the Federal Reserve, shows the volume of production of U.S. industries like manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Although industrial production accounts for a smaller portion of the economic activity than services, its sensitivity to consumer demand and interest rates makes it a leading indicator of GDP growth and economic performance.

» May’s Building Permits and Housing Starts – Wednesday, 06/18 – These reports provide valuable insights into the health of the housing market, as well as the overall economy since housing demand correlates with economic growth and consumer sentiment. Both reports are leading indicators, used by economists and analysts, among other data, to measure current demand and to estimate near-term trends in real estate and related industries.

For more exclusive market insights and content from TipRanks Macro & Markets research analyst Yulia Vaiman, click here.