Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s (BLK) CIO of Global Fixed Income, has a stern warning for stock market gamblers: “The period when nearly every chip you placed in the market seemed to pay off is behind us.”
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Rieder noted that over 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 (SPX) posted a positive annualized return between 2020 and 2024. However, roughly 40% of the companies had a negative year in 2025, signaling that the easy money may be coming to an end and that “2026 Is a Market for Investors, Not Gamblers.”
Rieder Highlights Rising Outcome Scenarios, Labor Market Risks
For 2026, Rieder expects a wider distribution of outcomes, both to the upside and the downside. “We expect more frequent idiosyncratic defaults and downgrades, even if the aggregate macro data remains respectable,” he added.
Rieder points out that while inflation seems to be contained, the labor market is still at risk of weakening amid an affordability crisis for many Americans. That strengthens the case for the Fed to reduce rates to a more neutral level.
Rieder recommends portfolio exposure to high-quality fixed income, select high-yield and private opportunities, and emerging-market debt for diversification.
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