The 10-year Treasury yield is up by 4.4 bps to 4.102% on Thursday as the odds of a rate cut at the December 9-10 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting remain nearly certain. The Fed received another data point to support a cut after outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that U.S. employers announced 71,321 layoffs in November, registering the highest level for the month since 2022.
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“The job market is softening, led by AI induced layoffs, which will produce a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed on Dec 10th,” said Mischler Financial Group managing director Tom di Galoma.
10-Year Yield Rises ahead of December FOMC
The federal funds rate influences the 10-year yield, although it is more closely tied to future expectations of inflation and economic growth. Falling interest rates typically lower the 10-year yield by signaling slower growth and easing inflation, while rising rates tend to push yields higher by reflecting stronger growth and inflation risks.
With the FOMC meeting less than a week away, investors continue to closely track the 10-year yield as a gauge for economic health, inflation, and future rate moves.
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