The 10-year Treasury yield is up by 6.4 bps to 4.155% on Wednesday as the prospects of the Supreme Court overturning President Trump’s tariffs increased following three hours of oral arguments. As a reminder, the yield on the 10-year moves in the opposite direction of its price.
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The hearing raised questions about whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) grants Trump the authority to impose broad tariffs on over 100 countries. If Trump loses the case, the U.S. could be forced to refund billions of dollars in tariff revenue. As a result, the rising yield on the 10-year could reflect a rotation from safe-haven assets to equities if investors expect a clearer legal and trade environment without the risk of tariffs.
Trump’s Court Victory Odds Dip Amid Solid October Payrolls
The odds of Trump winning the case have fallen by 8% during the past 24 hours to 31% on prediction platform Polymarket.
Investors are also digesting stronger-than-expected economic data, including October’s ADP private payrolls, which rose by 42,000 compared to the estimate of 30,000, marking the first monthly increase since July. The growth was led by the education, healthcare, and trade sectors, while job losses occurred in information, professional and business services, manufacturing, and leisure and hospitality.
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