Nvidia’s revenues likely reduced by 10% following H20 restrictions, says Wedbush

Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson notes that the U.S. government informed Nvidia (NVDA) it requires a license to export H20 ICs to China and D:5 countries and that this requirement will be in effect for the indefinite future. Q1 results are expected to include up to about $5.5B in charges associated with H20 products for inventory, purchase commitments, and related reserves. China, the firm believes, represents slightly over 10% of Nvidia’s revenues, an amount that was likely set to grow in Q1 given what it thinks was a significant uptick in demand from China to support Deepseek inference instances. With the company writing off associated H20 inventory, it appears the company is taking the position that it will not be granted licenses to ship product to Chinese customers. Net, Wedbush believes it now needs to be assumed that Nvidia’s revenues in future quarters are likely to be reduced by 10%. This result could weigh on TSMC’s (TSM) 2025 and Q2 outlook though the firm still thinks TSMC is unlikely to significantly shift its full year outlook. Wedbush has an Outperform rating on Nvidia with a price target of $175 on the shares.