JPMorgan sees Brent prices to rise to mid-to-high-$70s before falling again

JPMorgan refers to “oil vigilantes” as a concept suggesting that when challenges arise and oil prices plummet, the OPEC alliance will intervene to stabilize the market and prop up prices, noting that a Bloomberg panel at the International Energy event in late February showed that almost 20% of respondents identified OPEC’s output decisions as the most influential factor for the oil market this year. The firm’s fair-value model suggests that current Brent prices hovering in the low $70s are about $6 undervalued and JPMorgan still anticipates Brent prices to recover into the mid-to-high $70s over the next couple of months, before dipping below $70 and ending the year in the mid-$60s per barrel. The firm’s outlook for 2026 “remains decidedly bearish,” with substantial surpluses from 2025 extending into the following year, writes Natasha Kaneva, who sees this dynamic pulling Brent prices down to the high $50s by the end of 2026.