Bernstein raised the firm’s price target on BeiGene (ONC) to $259 from $207 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm sees more competitive advantage of sonrotoclax as a fixed duration therapy over the current standard-of-care and increased the peak sales estimate to $1.9B from $900M. With favorable early stage data and the start of a H2H trial against pirtobrutinib, market share assumption of BGB-16673 was raised to 68% in the BTK PROTAC class with higher probability of success, Bernstein adds. The firm also says that Zanubrutinib’s market share at peak increased to 41% given its strong positioning as the leading treatment for CLL in the U.S. Bernstein has revised up incidence rate to approximately 68,000 newly diagnosed B-cell malignancies patients in the U.S. in 2024 based on latest data. IRA price reduction now in the base case instead of bear case, as the Trump administration appears to stick to it, it notes.
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