Arch Capital price target lowered to $105 from $110 at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley lowered the firm’s price target on Arch Capital (ACGL) to $105 from $110 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. On average across the firm’s property and casualty insurance coverage, the firm lowered its Q1 and 2025 EPS estimates due to marginally higher core loss ratio estimates for Personal Lines due to potential tariff impacts; slightly lower growth forecasts for Commercial Lines due to macro uncertainty lower organic growth, partially offset by expense reduction for Brokers; and increased catastrophe events and macro uncertainty for reinsurers, the analyst tells investors in a preview for the group. The firm generally moved down price targets to reflect the incrementally worse equity market sentiment and overall recession concerns, noting that in some cases the revised targets also reflect downward EPS revisions.