Tesla or Pony AI: Goldman Sachs Chooses the Superior Robotaxi Stock to Buy

Robots have long captured our imagination in books and films, but now they’re hitting the road for real. In recent years, automotive and transport companies have begun unlocking the true potential of robotic vehicles. What was once science fiction is now very much a part of our evolving reality.

Autonomous vehicles have been on American roads, undergoing test programs, for several years. The test programs are investigating robocars as delivery vehicles and as passenger taxis. Meanwhile, China is positioning itself at the forefront of this revolution. According to Goldman Sachs, the country is poised to deploy 500,000 robotaxis across more than 10 cities by 2030, with the market expected to grow from $54 million this year to a staggering $47 billion by 2035.

Zooming out to the global picture, Goldman Sachs projects that a fleet of several million commercial autonomous vehicles could be on the road by 2030, primarily for ridesharing. While that would represent less than 1% of the total global vehicle fleet, it could still create a personal mobility market worth over $25 billion, and potentially over $100 billion under more optimistic assumptions.

With these projections in mind, Goldman analysts are zeroing in on the players driving this shift. Among the top contenders are Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Pony AI (NASDAQ:PONY), two AI/Robotaxi firms in the US and Chinese markets. Let’s take a closer look at which company Goldman Sachs views as the better bet for investors.

Tesla

We’ll start with Tesla, the core business among Elon Musk’s various enterprises. Tesla got its start in 2003, and today is not only the world’s largest electric vehicle company but also the world’s largest auto manufacturer of any type. The company’s $1.1 trillion market cap is more than four times higher than that of second-ranked Toyota. Tesla is also one of the EV industry’s most profitable names, and was the first EV maker to become consistently profitable in the US market.

Tesla has based its success on its cars, combining high tech, quality builds, and stylish comfort with Elon Musk’s genius for both industrial efficiency and smart marketing. In addition to its line of consumer-oriented vehicles, however, Tesla has numerous other products and projects, attesting to a wider vision.

Prominent among these are Tesla’s forays into AI, and its development of FSD, or full self-driving, technology. Both technologies are tied to the robotaxi market. Tesla’s work with AI involves the development of decision-making software capable of controlling a robot – the company even has plans to launch a humanoid robot, dubbed Optimus, into production next year with deliveries in 2027. But when paired with the FSD package – which includes advanced sensors and automotive control systems – the AI tech brings with it the promise of a fully autonomous vehicle, capable of acting as a robotic taxi.

In fact, Tesla unveiled the prototype for its robotaxi, which it called the Cybercab, late last year. The prototype vehicles were designed to operate completely independently of a human driver, and did not even have a steering wheel or pedals. Tesla has made progress since that unveiling, and the company plans to launch a working, road-worthy robotaxi test program in the city of Austin, Texas, next month.

From an investor’s perspective, Tesla’s wider vision and its moves to integrate autonomous AI technology with high-end automobiles are a clear advantage for the company. Tesla’s last earnings report, covering 1Q25, missed expectations at both the top and bottom line; revenue came in at $19.34 billion, or $2 billion below the forecast and down 9.2% year-over-year, while the company’s 27-cent EPS missed the forecast by 15 cents per share.

A look into the drill-downs is instructive. Tesla’s automotive revenue, while still the largest part of the company’s top line, fell 20% year-over-year to $14 billion. The company’s other projects – its energy production portfolio, its expanding network of charger stations, and its maintenance and service segment – helped to mitigate the declines. That Tesla is actively promoting new technologies, testing them on the road, and building them into ‘tomorrow’s vehicles’ is a clear indication that the company is not resting on past laurels but rather is working to shape its own future.

Goldman analyst Mark Delaney, who’s ranked in the top 2% of Wall Street stock experts, acknowledges the significance of Tesla’s efforts in robotaxis and autonomous technology, but his tone remains measured.

“We continue to expect a wider scale unsupervised FSD ramp (both for robataxis and consumer vehicles) to be slower than Tesla targets. The company stated it is seeing ~10k miles between critical interventions (and given that the typical vehicle in the US that gets into an accident every ~700K miles per US government data, we believe Tesla may be tracking more slowly than it previously targeted to be safer than a human driver in 2Q). Tesla commented that FSD and robotaxis may be a more substantial contributor to its financials in mid 2026 or 2H26,” Delaney opined.

“We continue to expect improved FSD monetization over time, but have a more balanced view than we think Tesla is targeting. Our positive view of Tesla’s potential cost structure with AVs and leadership in ADAS technology are moderated by the fact that we think it will take at least a few years for Tesla to enable wide-scale unsupervised driving for consumer vehicles (L4), and due to the competitive landscape especially in China,” the analyst added.

When it comes down to it, the Goldman analyst is playing it safe with a Hold (i.e., Neutral) rating on Tesla. He’s set a price target of $235, which points to a potential 31% drop from where the stock sits today. (To watch Delaney’s track record, click here)

That cautious stance reflects the overall mood on Wall Street. The consensus rating on TSLA is a Hold, based on 37 recent analyst reviews, including 16 Buys, 10 Holds, and 11 Sells. With shares currently trading at $339.34 and the average price target at $282.70, the Street is pricing in a ~17% drop over the next year. (See TSLA stock forecast)

Pony AI

Next up on Goldman’s radar is Pony AI, which maintains dual headquarters in Silicon Valley and Guangzhou, China. The company is a leader in the global market for vehicle automation technology, and has created a vehicle-agnostic Virtual Driver package to bring autonomous mobility to the commercial markets. Pony’s goal is to put autonomous vehicles on a viable commercial model, backed up by mass production that allows for mass deployment. Founded in 2016, Pony is a relative newcomer to the field, and its stock has only been trading publicly on Wall Street since last November.

Pony has created a fleet of autonomous vehicles, based on its AI technology platform. As noted, the platform is vehicle-agnostic, allowing Pony a great deal of flexibility when it comes to vehicle deployments; so far, the company has installed its driving systems on at least 10 different vehicle platforms, including both passenger vehicles and long-haul trucks. This fleet numbers more than 250 robotaxis and 190 robotrucks, and the cumulative autonomous driving mileage exceeds 39 million kilometers. Pony operates its vehicle fleet in a number of major Chinese cities, including such important metropolises as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. The company’s customers access the service through a smartphone app, which Pony says has more than 220,000 registered users.

In an important move, made earlier this month, Pony announced that it had entered a strategic partnership with Uber, to put Pony AI robotaxis on Uber’s rideshare platform. Uber is already known as a global leader in rideshare apps, and the partnership is expected to bring additional flexibility to both companies. Pony and Uber expect to launch their joint service in ‘a key Middle East market’ before the end of this year.

Pony has only been a public entity for about six months, so there is not a lot of public earnings data to look at. In its last financial release, covering 1Q25, the company showed a top line of $14 million, for an 11% year-over-year increase. At the bottom line, Pony ran a net loss – not uncommon among early-stage tech firms – reporting a non-GAAP net loss of $28.4 million.

With Pony AI scaling up fast, Goldman Sachs analyst Allen Chang sees plenty of upside ahead.

“Robotaxi operations are ramping up, with fare-charging revenues increased by 800% YoY, in-line with our expectation of increasing contributions from recurring revenues to support a more stable performance among quarters. With the Gen7 robotaxi entering mass production, management aim to deploy the new model gradually, aiming for 1,000 robotaxis in total by year-end. We view positively the Gen7 model roll-outs, as it comes with much better costs efficiency than Gen6, and the increasing fleet size will enhance service coverage, attracting more potential users. We remain positive on Pony AI given its rising scale in Robotaxi and business upgrade from project-based to operations business in the near term and recurring software solutions in the long term,” the analyst opined.

Chang’s positive outlook leads to a Buy rating for PONY shares, and his $26 price target points toward a one-year gain for the stock of 49%. (To watch Chang’s track record, click here)

Chang’s is one of two reviews on record for PONY, and both agree that this is a stock to buy – giving this ticker its Moderate Buy consensus rating. The stock is priced at $17.41 and the $21.85 target price suggests a ~26% gain by this time next year. (See PONY stock forecast)

With the facts laid out, it’s clear that Goldman Sachs sees Pony AI as the superior robotaxi stock to buy in today’s rapidly shifting marketplace.

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.