Moderna’s Stable Outlook Amid Regulatory Challenges and Revenue Projections Justifies Hold Rating

Analyst Tyler Van Buren of TD Cowen maintained a Hold rating on Moderna (MRNA – Research Report), retaining the price target of $30.00.

Tyler Van Buren’s rating is based on a combination of factors, including Moderna’s current sales performance and future revenue projections. The company’s Q1 vaccine sales were lower than expected, but Moderna is on track to meet its first-half guidance of $200 million, which suggests some stability in its financial outlook. Despite the challenges, Moderna has maintained its 2025 revenue guidance of $1.5-2.5 billion, indicating confidence in future demand for its respiratory franchise products, particularly in the latter half of the year.
Another factor influencing the Hold rating is the regulatory environment. Moderna is navigating ongoing regulatory reviews for its next-generation COVID vaccine and expanded age group approval for RSV. While there is uncertainty in the macroeconomic landscape, the management’s assurance of business continuity and their focus on financial discipline, with a cost goal of $1.4-1.7 billion, provide a balanced view of the company’s prospects. These elements combined suggest a cautious but stable outlook, justifying the Hold rating.