Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) holds the title of the world’s most valuable company, so it’s no surprise that all eyes turn to it when earnings season rolls around.
But as the tech giant gets ready to unveil its fiscal Q2 (March quarter) results after the close today (Thursday, May 1), the readout feels a little different. This time, it’s less about the numbers and more about how Apple plans to navigate the tariff situation.
Even so, Wall Street will be watching the numbers. Barclays analyst Tim Long, who ranks amongst the top 2% of Wall Street stock pros, is anticipating a solid beat, driven by favorable FX tailwinds, a 1 million-unit iPhone pull-in, stronger-than-expected Mac sales, and steady Services performance. But he’s quick to throw cold water on any runaway optimism.
“Tariff related pull-in should help iPhones and Macs above consensus expectations,” says Long. “We think that this is solely based on inventory pull forward to get ahead of tariff implantation and potential price hikes, and not related to real time demand trends which remain downbeat based on our checks.”
Long adds that April brought a burst of demand for both standard iPhones and the iPhone 16e, but he doesn’t expect that to last. In his view, the rest of Q2 will likely underwhelm, with weakness extending into the back half of 2025 and persisting into 2026.
While Long believes March and June could outperform current consensus expectations due to these pull-ins, he still views Street estimates for iPhones in 2026 as too optimistic, given a slowdown in demand, market share losses in China, and “limited traction” for AI adoption due to delays in Siri and other feature rollouts. That said, there’s the prospect iPhones in China could launch with an AI partnership around the middle of 2025.
Long thinks China revenues are likely to show year-over-year declines in the quarter, as stimulus effects faded in the latter part of Q1, and iPhones continue to face share pressure in the region.
“Overall,” Long summed up, “we are still worried about China, regulatory risk for Services (GOOG TAC), undefined AI strategy (Siri delay) and muted sell-throughs for IP16.”
All that adds up to a downbeat view from Long. The 5-star analyst rates Apple shares an Underweight (i.e., Sell), while his price target goes from $197 to $173, suggesting the stock will post a ~19% decline in the months ahead. (To watch Long’s track record, click here)
Turning now to the rest of the Street, where 2 other analysts also take a dim view of Apple’s prospects, yet with an additional 18 Buys and 7 Holds, the consensus view is that the stock is a Moderate Buy. The average price target stands at $233.48, implying the stock will gain ~10% over the one-year timeframe. (See AAPL stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.