Can XRP Really Hit $10 — or Is a Breakdown to $1.96 Coming First?

XRP’s (XRP-USD) story this year is a paradox. Bullish catalysts are stacking up. ETFs, futures, regulatory clarity — check. And yet, the price has slumped 31% since January’s peak of $3.40, trading around $2.31 as of May 27.

So what’s really driving Ripple’s price action — and what’s next?

Ripple Charts Flash Bullish Patterns with Serious Upside

Technically speaking, XRP has the ingredients for a breakout. The coin recently completed a textbook cup and handle pattern, setting up a possible target of $3.66. That’s just the start.

Zoom out and the structure turns even more bullish. A bullish pennant is forming — a continuation pattern that, if confirmed, could send XRP breaking past its $3.40 YTD high. A clean breakout there opens the door to $5, and potentially the psychological jackpot: $10.

This isn’t wishful thinking. XRP rallied 500% in November under similar conditions. History rhymes in crypto — and Ripple traders know it.

XRP’s Institutional Interest Is Cooling — That’s a Red Flag

But not everything is on track. Despite the bullish setups, institutional demand is fading. According to CoinShares, XRP investment products saw $37.2 million in outflows, breaking an 80-week inflow streak. Compare that to Bitcoin’s $2.9 billion in inflows.

It’s a sharp signal: smart money is rotating elsewhere, at least for now.

Open interest in XRP futures has also dropped nearly 10% in two weeks. That means traders aren’t adding to positions — a lack of conviction that weakens upside momentum and leaves price more vulnerable to sell-offs.

XRP Technicals Point to Possible Breakdown to $1.96

On the short-term chart, the outlook is weakening. XRP is stuck inside a descending triangle, a bearish pattern that often precedes breakdowns.

The trigger? A sustained move below the 200-day SMA at $2.31. If that breaks, XRP could slip to $1.96 — or worse. A deeper breakdown could send it as low as $1.61, a level that aligns with broader support from previous cycles.

Catalysts Could Flip the Script — If They Land

Nevertheless, XRP’s story isn’t over. Rate cuts from the Fed, a surprise XRP ETF approval, or BlackRock jumping into the Ripple ETF race could reignite demand instantly.

Add to that growing whale accumulation, Ripple’s expansion of its RippleNet ecosystem, and the recent HiddenRoad acquisition, and there are plenty of upside levers.

But XRP has to hold key support first. Because if it doesn’t, all that potential could get buried in another selloff.

At the time of writing, XRP is sitting at $2.34.